08/06/2020 - Interanational Relations

KEY POINTS

·         In Persian Gulf, there is a commonality of interest among them in being major producers of crude oil and natural gas, and thereby contributing critically to the global economy and to their own prosperity.

·         The essential ingredients of such a Cooperative security framework would thus be to ensure: conditions of peace and stability in individual littoral states; freedom to all states of the Gulf littoral to exploit their hydrocarbon and other natural resources and export them; freedom of commercial shipping in international waters of the Persian Gulf.

·         One credible assessment done recently suggests that in the emerging shape of the region, ‘Saudi Arabia is a fading power, UAE, Qatar and Iran are emerging as the new regional leaders and Oman and Iraq will have to struggle to retain their sovereign identities.

India’s ties

·         Locating the Persian Gulf littoral with reference to India is an exercise in geography and history.

·         The bilateral relationship, economic and political, with the GCC has blossomed in recent years. The governments are India-friendly and Indian-friendly and appreciate the benefits of a wide-ranging relationship. This is well reflected in the bilateral trade of around $121 billion and remittances of $49 billion from a workforce of over nine million.

·         Gulf CC suppliers account for around 34% of our crude imports and national oil companies in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are partners in a $44 billion investment in the giant Ratnagiri oil refinery.

·         In addition, Saudi Aramco is reported to take a 20% stake in Reliance oil-to-chemicals business. The current adverse impact of the pandemic on our economic relations with the GCC countries has now become a matter of concern.

·         The relationship with Iran, complex at all times and more so recently on account of overt American pressure, has economic potential and geopolitical relevance on account of its actual or alleged role in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

·         Iran also neighbours Turkey and some countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region. Its size, politico-technological potential and economic resources, cannot be wished away, regionally and globally, but can be harnessed for wider good.

·         India has eschewed involvement in local or regional disputes. Indian interests do not entail power projection; they necessitate in their totality, peace and regional stability, freedom of navigation and access to the region’s markets in terms of trade, technology and manpower resources. Indian interests would be best served if this stability is ensured through cooperative security since the alternativeof competitive security options cannot ensure durable peace.

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The land around the persian gulf are shared by eight countries,all of them are members of UN. These countries are Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE.These countries are major producers of crude oil and natural gas and thereby contributing critically to the global economy.This factor added to their geopolitical significance. At the same time, turbulence has often characterized their inter se political relations.

Example: 1. Saudi Iranian cooperation is being undercut. 

2. An early effort of collective security, held in a conference at Muscat in 1975, thwarted by Baathiest Iraq.

3. The Iranian revolution put an end to the twin pillar approach and disturbed strategic balance. 

4. The Iraq iran war enhance US interest and role.

India's interest with the Persian Gulf

1. India is dependent on six GCC states for 42% of its overall oil imports. Saudi Arabia-20% of total oil imports.

2. Qatar is also india's dominant supplier of LNG.

3. Around 7.6 million indian nationals living and working in this region esp in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. There safety and security is the key priority of Indian government.

4. The GCC is India's largest regional bloc trading partner($104 billion of trade 2017-18) which is higher than India-ASEAN trade and India-EU trade in 2017-18.

5. 54% of the total remittances come from the GCC ($37 million) in 2017.

6. India and UAE have decided to increase their bilateral trade by 60% over next 5 years and invest $75 billion into India's infrastructure such as roads , airports , highways, construction and petrochemical project.

7. "Operation Sankalp" launched in persian gulf and gulf of oman is working out peacefully.

Challenges for india in relation with the GCC.

1. To maintain good relation with Iran amidst US Trump administration sanction.

   India-Iran relation: with respect to shia muslim minority in India.

2. Tripartite agreement between India Iran Afghanistan to develop Chabahar port with assistance of $500 million from India for its development.

For stability and security in the region.

It will ensured only if they provide

1. Peace and stability in individual states.

2. Freedom to explore their hydrocarbons & other natural resources and export them.

3. Freedom of commercial shipping in international waters of the persian gulf.

4. Freedom to access to, outlet from, Gulf waters through Strait of Hormuz.

5. Prevention of conflict in between them due to freedom of trade and shipping.