What is the issue?
- Indian Metrological Department has recognised the latest south-west monsoon rainfall as 'normal' in statistical terms.
- However, the spatial and temporal distribution of rains shows a different picture.
What is a normal monsoon year?
- Long-Period Average (LPA) rainfall of India for the entire monsoon season is around 887 mm.
- IMD deems a season ‘normal’ if the all-India quantum of rain falls within a 10% range of the LPA.
- In this south-west monsoon season (June to September), India has received a total 841.3 mm of rain.
- This is short of the LPA by 5%.
- Thus, statistically south-west monsoon for 2017 has turned out to be normal.
Why is it not 'normal' for agriculture?
- IMD categorises India into 36 meteorological sub-divisions for measuring the spatial spread of rainfall.
- In this monsoon, 5 of the 36 sub-divisions received excess rains, 25 received normal rains and 6 witnessed deficient rains.
- Also, the first two months of the season witnessed an excess rainfall than the latter two.
- Thus, however the quantum of rainfall this season was normal, the distribution was quite unusual.
- Notably, the spatial and temporal distribution of rains decides the crop prospects.
What could the impact be?
- Spatial variation - This year’s monsoon has been deficient in some key food-bowl States, affecting crop production. E.g.
- Deficient rains in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab is bound to affect kharif rice production.
- Deficient rains in Madhya Pradesh would impact rabi wheat crop and pulses output.
- Patchy distribution in Madhya Pradesh and Haryana could affect oilseeds' prospects.
- Besides, there are wide variations within each state between growing regions.
- Temporal variation - This year witnessed excess rains in June and July contributing to good sowing and coverage of the kharif crops.
- However, August and September months saw below normal rains, impacting the eventual output by reducing crop yields.
- Also, rainfall in these two months decides reservoir storage and soil moisture and eventually helps planting of the winter crops.
- Notably, the rabi season and winter crops has been equally important to the agricultural prospects in recent years.
- Therefore, dry spells in the latter half of this monsoon, taken with deficient rains in key rabi growing regions, has reduced rabi prospects.
Source: The Hindu
