What is the issue?
- There is a predominantly youthful population in northern States and a maturing population in southern and western States.
- This has induced series of migrations which might increase in future.
Does India have demographic divergence?
- Most of the current and future demographic potential is locked in the northern States.
- It is located in Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
- As per population projections, these five States will account for more than 55% of population growth in India till 2030.
- Those who are under 15 years of age today will become India’s working population in the coming decades.
- Almost every second person in this age group resides in these five States.
- The proportion of the elderly population started increasing in the southern States.
- Now, the phenomenon has extended to the western, extreme northern and eastern States.
- This demographic divergence between States and regions is important from the policy perspective and forward-looking development planning.
What are the implications?
- Southern states will require a young workforce to keep institutions functioning efficiently, and also to take care of the elderly.
- This need is likely to be met by people from the youthful North.
- Already the migration trend has started with established flows of young people from northern states.
- The divergent demographic transition in the high-low Total Fertility Rate (TFR) states will add further impetus to this movement in the coming decades.
What should be done?
- The challenges of moving into new communities that speak different languages and have different cultures need to be understood and addressed.
- Along with the migrants, the issues of the locals must also be appreciated.
- There is a need to gain deeper understanding of migration flows to address the changing need for housing and infrastructure, health care and utilities, education and skills.
- States need to work together to provide portability of identity proof and entitlements.
- There is a need to build support systems for families left behind.
Source: The Hindu
