Why in news?
Recent Indian study finds that it is possible to forecast the outbreak of the dengue.
What is the study about?
- Study focuses on changes in a factor called extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the dengue virus, by taking into account daily and monthly mean temperatures different climatic zones.
- The EIP is the time taken for incubation of the virus in the mosquito.
- During this period, after the mosquito draws blood that is rich in viruses, it escapes the gut and passes through the mosquito’s body and reaches its salivary glands.
- Once this happens, the mosquito is infectious and capable of transmitting the virus to a human host.
What are the outcomes of the study?
- Climatic conditions play an important role in EIP.
- Lower temperatures (17-18°C) result in longer EIPs thereby leading to decreased virus transmission.
- From 17 to 30°C, dengue transmission increases fourfold, feeding increases because of the enhanced metabolism of the mosquito, leading to shorter EIPs.
- A further increase in temperature beyond 35°C is detrimental to the mosquito’s survival.
- There is a strong correlation between rainfall and dengue numbers, they propose an increase in breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
- Given its close link with both temperature and rainfall, it is possible to forecast the outbreak of dengue.
How it helps in Disease control?
- This climate-based dengue forecasting model could help health authorities assess the disease intensity in a geographic region.
- Based on thisauthorities can plan disease-control operations well in advance and optimise the use of resources meticulously.
- Factors such as population density and migration also need to be included for future risk assessment studies.
- This will help in mitigating the disease and strategic disease control.
Source: The Hindu
