What is the issue?
- India is moving swiftly to ease frictions with neighbouring countries.
- But any neighbourhood policy can’t overlook India equations with Pakistan, which is presently not on desirable terms.
How has the relationship with China evolved under Modi?
- China - The new regime in 2014 started off the Indo-China diplomacy with much euphoria and personal touch, but things went off track soon.
- In 2016, China blocked India’s bit to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
- This was followed by China blockading India sponsored resolutions in the “UN Security Council” in order to protect Pakistan based terror outfits.
- Additionally, China stopped sharing hydrological data on Brahmaputra river waters and reports emerged that China is building tunnels to divert water.
- All these culminated in the 73-day stand-off at Doklam (Bhutan Sikkim China tri-junction), which saw a massive troop mobilisation on both sides.
- India’s actions - India vociferously criticised China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) as a project intended to create debt traps.
- It also stepped with maritime engagements through the annual Malabar Navel Exercise involving U.S., Japan and India.
- India also played a key role in establishing the Quadrilateral (Quad), which is a security arrangement among India –US – Japan – Australia.
- Course Correction - There currently seems to be a realisation on both sides that the risks of the downward spiral ties are in nobody’s interests.
- Hence, leaders on both sides have moved swiftly to change the confrontational attitude and opt for a more fruitful cooperative engagement.
- On that note, sustained high level engagements started off almost immediately after the Doklam crisis got diffused.
- The Indian government was also conscious when it avoided the ceremony that marked the 60th Anniversary of Dalai Lama’s India arrival.
- Also, Australia’s request for joining the 2017 Malabar Exercise (which took place near Chennai), was turned down to lower the rhetoric.
- Recently, the Indian PM visited China and for a long and exhaustive informal meet that is said to have covered almost all aspects of Indo-China relationship.
- Border patrols on both sides are said to have been instructed clearly to improve communications with the other side and avoid stand-offs.
- Although no progress has been made regarding disagreements on the NSG and BRI issues, a visible softening of the overall equations seems palpable.
- With three other international summits (SCO, BRICS, and G20) for the year already on the calendar, there is every indication for a sustained engagement.
What is the situation with Nepal?
- Mr. Modi’s visit in 2014 had generated considerable goodwill but subsequent decisions queered the pitch.
- India’s public display of unhappiness with Nepal’s new Constitution and support for the Madhesi cause created ill-will.
- Additionally, tacit Indian support was broadly suspected for the border economic blockade in the Terai region that disrupted essentials for Nepal.
- All these had fed into an anti-Indian sentiment among them Nepali masses, something that Mr. K.P. Oli capitalised effectively in the election campaigns.
- The victory of Mr. Oli was indeed a disappointment for India, but the government seems to have swiftly swung into action to undo the animosity.
- A high profile delegation was sent to Nepal to congratulate Mr. Oli even before he was sworn in as PM, and an invitation to India was presented to him.
- Mr. Oli seems to have taken these positively and had made India his first foreign destination – which is now the tradition for all Nepali PMs.
- Modi is now expected to go to Nepal soon, which is again indicative of the fact that the tension of the past are fast waning.
- There are expectations that the stalled Indian proposal for a Ramayana pilgrimage circuit linking Ayodhya and Janakpur in Nepal could be revived.
- Significantly, while the expectations are being kept low, the optics of positive messaging are evident through the highlighting of cultural connections.
How are the equations with Pakistan changing?
- With Pakistan too, the Modi dispensation began its rule with a positive outreach, which also attracted a good response from the Pakistani PM.
- The Downswing - Subsequent cross border terror attacks by Pakistani based terror outfits turned the initial friendship sour.
- Also, the seeming reluctance of the Pakistani state to reign in the activities of anti-India forces on its soil further ruined the relationship.
- The September 2016, India launched ‘surgical strikes’ to target terrorist bases in Pakistan (along the border), but this operation too proved ineffective.
- Firing across the Line of Control (LoC) also intensified leading to higher casualties on both sides, both civilian and military.
- The encounter killing of Hisbul Mujaheedin Commander Burhan Wani in Kashmir fuelled local radicalism in J&K – Pakistan is said to have aided this.
- Indian Actions - India stalled the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit since 2016 in protest against Pakistan’s actions.
- The Trump administration too seems to be largely sharing India’s outlook towards Pakistan, which has brought some cheer to Indian policy makers.
- Minor fumbles in according comfort to the posted diplomats recently blew into a big controversy that saw actions and retaliations – which is concerning.
- Future - Elections are likely in July 2018 in Pakistan – but Nawaz Sharif is disqualified by the Supreme Court and there seems to be no strong alternative.
- This only strengthens the Army’s position in determining the immediate political realities in Pakistan.
- Significantly, Pakistan Army Chief Bajwa has been emphasising the need for improving relations with both India and Afghanistan.
- The stalled “Track II Neemrana Dialogue” has been revived recently, which is a positive for both countries – which needs to be sustained till its logical ends.
- Pakistan needs to address India’s core concerns like – 26/11 investigations, curtailing JeM and other anti-India groups and the Kulbushan Jadhav case.
Source: The Hindu
