Internal Climate Migration

What is the issue?

There is presently an increased internal migration across the world due to political and economic instability.
Beyond this, the internal migration due to climate change is potential of getting to be a major concern for nations.

What is the looming danger?

Some of the slow onset climate events would be droughts, effects from sea level rise and water shortages.
These may certainly drive many more to leave their homes and move to safer places.
Such migration may be a choice in the initial stages.
However, as the stress becomes more severe, the decision to move may be forced.
E.g. people are compelled to leave their island nations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans with gradual rise in sea levels
These climate exiles are an ongoing process.
Notably, it would likely increase out-migration over time.

Which regions are vulnerable?

A recent report by the World Bank on internal climate migration highlights the possible migration reality.
In Latin America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa over 140 million people would be forced to move within borders by 2050.
This would be as a result of slow onset climate events alone.
In the worst-case scenario, about 40 million of these migrants would be in South Asia.
This is the most populous of the regions studied, with a number of climate change effects anticipated.

How would South-Asia be affected?

South Asia is characterised by rain-fed farmland in large parts of the region.
Variability in the monsoons and warmer temperatures is sure to lead to crop failures.
This will lead to migration from the Gangetic plains and from the rice-growing northeast of Bangladesh and the inundated coasts.
The numbers on forced internal migration in South Asia could increase six-fold between 2020 and 2050.
This will continue to rise beyond 2050 without appropriate climate action.
But even with inclusive development and climate-friendly scenarios, tens of millions would still be forced to migrate.
This normally makes people migrate to big cities.
However, those along the coast such as Mumbai, Chennai, Chittagong and Dhaka will themselves be vulnerable.
Storm surges and other effects from sea level rise make these coastal cities unfavourable.

What are the concerns?

The poor would be the worst affected by these slow onset events.
Most of them would migrate out of rural areas to nearby urban settlements such as cities and the peri-urban surroundings.
Such “hotspots” of in and out migration would be stressed for natural resources, public services and livelihoods.
In India, the areas between Chennai and Bengaluru could be the potential spots.
In India, there are already signs of unplanned and frontier-led growth in peri-urban areas.
Planning that ignores the ecosystem services provided by local natural resources generates further problems for the vulnerable.
The implications of internal migrations will significantly affect development in these areas and the lives of vulnerable people.

What should be done?

Policy - Understanding migration patterns, getting socioeconomic data on migration and appropriate planning are essential.
Current climate modelling methods are not accurate at high resolutions for local decision-making.
Policies to reduce GHG emissions are of utmost urgency.
Cities - The peri-urban areas, expected to be hotspots, already have many problems.
These include water shortage, waste management, nutritional deficiency, limited services and poor infrastructure.
Thus, integrating internal migration with ongoing development planning is vital.
Ecosystem - Ecosystems, part of the natural resources in peri-urban areas, ought to be protected as “special ecological zones”.
This is crucial to ensure that as urban settlements expand, they don’t spoil the ecosystem services.
Social - Ignoring issues of social justice and equity in adaptation can lead to serious governance failure.
Skill building, job training and education and job opportunities for locals and migrants thus have to become a focal point.
Rights for those who are forced to migrate would be fundamental in these preparations.

Source: The Hindu