What is the issue?
- North Korea's upcoming meet with the US is expected to give a shape to its denuclearisation plan.
- With its effort to gain the trust of world nations and remove the sanctions, a look at the means and probabilities become essential.
What is the recent meet on?
- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met for the first time recently.
- They have pledged to ensure peace, prosperity and unification of the Korean peninsula.
- North Korea has already pledged to close one of its nuclear test sites.
What is the complexity?
- Differences between the two leaders on the question of denuclearisation are evident.
- South Korea emphasised that complete denuclearisation was essential for peace.
- However, North Korea did not make its stance clear on this front.
- There was a clear indication of the need for equality between the two, during the talks.
- However, this equality is hard to be materialised in terms of nuclear security in the short term.
How have denuclearisations been?
- Denuclearisation is a key to the whole process, as it means different things to different people.
- For the U.S., the models are Iraq, Libya and the former republics of the Soviet Union.
- They all surrendered their nuclear assets in return for peace and normalisation.
- But North Korea seems to be opting for a different model.
What is North Korea's possible plan?
- Recognition - It much resembles the Indian model nuclear deal.
- Under this, it gets recognised as a “technologically advanced responsible state”.
- On the basis of this, it in turn gets certain strategic assurances.
- It is an effort to legitimise the nuclear arsenal and earn recognition as a responsible state.
- Credibility - India arrived at the nuclear deal with the US by pointing to the direct nuclear threat from China and in turn from Pakistan.
- Mr. Kim has gone further by suspending all missile tests and taking steps to shut down a nuclear test site.
- This is much in line with earlier US 's demand to India to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty to avoid sanctions.
- Relations with US - Kim is also likely to use the Indian model to bargain for normal relations with the U.S.
- This may be on the basis of guarantees such as:
- minimum deterrence
- non-first use
- no tests
- commitment to nuclear disarmament in keeping with global developments, etc
Why is this model uncertain for North Korea?
- Trust and confidence in India as a responsible state and various other factors were behind the historic nuclear deal.
- Unlike India, the track followed by the earlier North Korean leaders and the present one appeared in disorder.
- This is ever since North Korea sought to leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) regime.
- The posture was of threat and arrogance rather than peace or reconciliation.
- It is now inclined to negotiate its way into removing sanctions and shaping its future.
- But the U.S. would be far more reluctant to make any concessions to North Korea without an agreement on denuclearisation.
- The forthcoming negotiations will prove whether the Indian model will help North Korea in restoring peace.
- Some amount of domestic reform at home, in terms of civil liberties, would help North Korea make its case better.
Source: The Hindu
