Why in news?
The 7 year-old Syrian conflict is moving toward a possible end with the defeat of IS and weak ceasefire agreements with the many rebel groups.
How has peace negotiations progressed?
- Astana Peace Process, (sponsored by Russia, Iran & Turkey) and the U.N.-sponsored Geneva Talks have been inconclusive thus far.
- Russia has pressed the military advantage gained to find a lasting political solution by hosting Syrian President Assad recently.
- Notably, the Russian side had also had multiple consultations with other stakeholders - U.S., Saudi, Egyptian and Israel.
- Also, in tandem with the Russian initiatives, Saudi sponsored a two-day meeting of around 140 rival groups in Riyadh.
- In this, an agreement was reached to field a unified rebel delegation at the Geneva talks in future meetings.
- They also reportedly dropped their long-standing demand for the removal of President Assad, which could ease tensions.
What are the challenges?
- The intense foreign involvements that pursue divergent objectives have created a big mess in Syria – which needs to be overcome.
- Divergence - Notably, there is no unanimous opionion in support of the Assad regime and the legitimacy of major rebel groups.
- The Kurdish quest for self determination is also highly controversial as this spreads across borders.
- Similarly, apprehension about Iranian gains in the Syria have also been a major concern for countries like Saudi & Israel.
- Also, the future polity envisioned for Syria range from the continuation of “Shiaite Ba’at Allawite domination” under Assad to the establishment of a “Sunni Rebublic”.
- Enacting Peace – A sustainable and speedy agreement on peace is crutial as prolonged negotiations will lead to further crisis.
- Any peace process involves funds for reconstruction and stakeholders should ensure sufficient funds for development.
- The best one can realistically hope for is a congruence of major players and progressive withdrawal of foreign military presence.
What are the stakes for India?
- By keeping a low profile during the conflict, India has earned wider acceptability across the Syrian social spectrum.
- Before the war, bilateral trade between the two countries was over half a billion dollars annually, with India enjoying a trade surplus.
- In a post-conflict situation, India has a potential role in institution building and reconstruction.
- India could also capitalise on its rapo with Iran to further its economic prospects Syria.
Source: The Hindu
