What is the issue?
- The recent Quadrilateral alliance and the consequent talk of an ‘Asian NATO’ have brought the India-China rivalry back to the limelight.
- Balancing a rising China requires a great deal of India’s strategic attention in the years ahead.
How prospective is China?
- China is becoming a global leader in terms of composite national strength and international influence.
- Globally, there is certainly a power vacuum, left by Donald Trump’s ‘reluctant superpower.
- If China rightly utilises this power vacuum, its superpower ambitions are bound to have a system-shaping impact on the Asian region.
- There could possibly be China-led alliances, Chinese client states and the establishment of Chinese spheres of influence.
- China would not fail to ensure that its access to overseas resources/markets and the oceanic trade routes are unhindered.
What irritants does India face?
- China is thus involved in a grand strategy to anchor its supremacy and eliminate any U.S.-led coalition in the Asian region.
- There are several sources of fear for India which include:
- denying India entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group
- repeatedly blocking UN sanctions against Pakistan-based terrorists
- ever-strengthening China-Pakistan military alliance
- ignoring India’s sensitivity over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
- revisionist claims in the land and oceanic space. E.g. revisionist statements on Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh
- increasing naval presence, including dispatching its nuclear submarines on patrol, in the Indian Ocean.
- China, stepping up its political and economic footprint in the region
Is India's current strategy effective?
- Power - Currently, India is seemingly increasing its alliance with the US to deal with Beijing; most recently the Quad.
- Amidst Chinese grand strategy, India's US-centric strategy could turn to be a spoiler. This is because:
- the US is a quickly-receding extra-regional power
- its long-term commitment to the Asian region is increasingly indeterminate and unsure
- the reliability of other alliance states like Japan to take forward firmly a strategic partnership with the U.S is highly uncertain
- US-China relations are far more complex than the general assumptions
- Economy - The second broad policy direction seems to be to compete with China for regional influence in South Asia.
- Clearly, trying to match the powerful yuan, backed by vigorous political support from Beijing, with our humble rupee is a losing battle.
- It is suggested that India should use its $70 billion-strong trading relationship with China as a bargaining chip to check Chinese behaviour.
- But doing so would hurt both sides, especially India, given the fact that India-China bilateral trade is heavily skewed in favour of China.
- Boycotting Chinese goods would also mean Indian consumers paying more to get them from elsewhere.
- Military - Military preparedness to offset any potential Chinese aggression is something that India can and should invest in.
- However, military preparedness, in which India is inevitably lagging behind China, alone cannot address the concerns.
What then should India's strategy be?
- One way is viewing China as part of the solution to the region’s challenges.
- A mutual ‘complex interdependence’ in economic, security and other domains should be strengthened by initiating structured consultations.
- E.g. the current India-China joint anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden.
- India should certainly focus on the Indo-Pacific and consider cooperating with China, even while being part of the Quad.
- India also needs to strategise a plan to nudge China towards playing a role so as to ensure a stable regional security order.
- This is particularly in the context of its role in Pakistan, where China has to balance trade and terrorism.
- Despite this strategy of mutual trust, the role of military strength in guaranteeing national security cannot be underestimated.
- Thus, India would be better served by adopting a more nuanced strategy of 'smart-balancing' China.
Source: The Hindu
