What is the issue?
- Trump administration has been criticising Iran’s nuclear deal.
- This might provoke a new spell of uncertainty.
What is JCPOA?
- Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed between Iran and P5 + 1 (5 permanent members of UNSC-China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States-plus Germany).
- It provided concessions to Iran for giving up its nuclear enrichment program.
- Trump has claimed that the deal is the most lopsided agreement ever signed.
- The deadline for the US to certify Iran’s compliance with the deal is nearing & a refusal to do so seems very possible.
What will be impact of US pullout?
- Such an action would undo the deal & could subsequently pave the way for reimposition of sanctions on Iran by the US.
- Other countries involved in the deal have backed Iran thus far and might even enhance trade relations with it in future.
- China, Iran’s main trading partner, and Russia, Iran’s military ally in Syria, would defy U.S. sanctions with even greater enthusiasm.
- Thus, Iran might be able to overlook the US pullout.
- But the friction could have other regional consequences.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards could unleash Shia militia against U.S. troops in Iraq, and expand support to Afghan insurgents.
- Saudi-Iran tensions would spike, and the risks of a U.S.-Russia confrontation in West Asia would also jump dramatically.
- It would be devastating for Washington’s credibility in future diplomacy.
- For India, the Chabahar project, which is scheduled for completion next year, might face fresh obstacles.
What would be the consequent course for Iran?
- Even if the deal is undone, Tehran is unlikely to expel nuclear inspectors entirely, or withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- Iran would, however, consider re-starting the nuclear enrichment build-up like before 2013 as a bragining chip.
- It would try to balance the advantages of this course against the risk of provoking European powers into siding with the US.
- Increasing tensions between with US & Israel will also weigh on Iran’s calculations.
Source: The Hindu
