Armenia and Azerbaijan - Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Region

Why in news?

Tensions escalated recently at the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan resulting in the death of at least four Azerbaijani soldiers.

What is this conflict about?

• Territorial disputes and ethnic conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Central Asia is on for approximately four decades now.
• These have impacted the Nagorno-Karabakh region in the South Caucasus.
• Conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region began following the breakdown of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s.
• The conflict lasted till approximately 1994, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan claiming this strategic territory.
• At that time, the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum.
• This was boycotted by Azerbaijan.
• In the referendum, people chose independence over joining either of the two countries.
• The conflict between ethnic Armenians and ethnic Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh persisted.
• It reached a particular low with Armenia and Azerbaijan accusing each other of having instigated ethnic cleansing.
• The situation worsened when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, an administrative unit, decided to vote to join Armenia.
• This was due to the fact of the large Armenian population there.
• By 1992, the violence had increased.
• Thousands of civilians had been displaced, compelling international bodies to take notice.
• In May 1994, thus, Russia mediated a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

How effective was the ceasefire?

• The conflict continued, and there have been instances of ceasefire violations and violence instigated from both sides.
• The border between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been tense since 2018.
• This was particularly after Azerbaijan moved troops into the area, close to its border with Georgia.
• But this area has been relatively calm for the past 2 years.
• This is a break from the violence that the disputed region has witnessed for over 30 years.
• In April 2016, the region was particularly tense because of violent fighting between the two countries.
• This came to be known as the Four-Day War.

What happened recently?

• It was not immediately clear what started the current round of fighting.
• Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence said 4 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed in the artillery fire near the Tavush region, in northeast Armenia.
• Five other soldiers were injured.
• Reports suggested that two Armenian soldiers had also been injured during this incident.
• Following the killings, Armenia and Azerbaijan were engaged in a verbal spat.
• The Azerbaijani president has said that the Armenia’s political and military leadership would bear the entire responsibility for the provocation.
• This has added to his government’s claim that Armenia had started the fighting.
• Armenia in turn said Azerbaijan had triggered the conflict.
• According to a BBC report, Azerbaijan had said it had destroyed an Armenian fortification and artillery.
• It had also inflicted casualties on “hundreds” of Armenian soldiers.
• But this is a claim that Armenia had denied.
• Armenia’s Defence Minister had implied that in this latest round of conflicts, Azerbaijan may have captured “advantageous positions”.
• He had added that Armenian forces “do not shell civilian targets in Azerbaijan and only target the engineering infrastructure and technical facilities of the Azerbaijani armed forces”.
• Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev had said peace talks with Armenia had stalled over the ongoing conflict.

Is there a possibility of a war?

• An all-out war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is unlikely due to a number of factors.
• In this disputed region, there are hundreds of civilian settlements.
• The residents here would be directly impacted and potentially displaced if any large-scale war were to break out.
• Turkey recently released a statement that it would back Azerbaijan “in its struggle to protect its territorial integrity.”
• However, any military escalation would draw regional powers like Turkey and Russia more deeply into the conflict.
• This is something that would not be preferred by either Ankara or Moscow.
• There is also the question of the network of oil and gas pipelines and strategic roads.
• Access to these might be blocked or interrupted for the region at large in case of a large-scale fighting.
• For both Armenia and Azerbaijan, this would create immediate challenges.
• Given these, a war would not be in the interest of both the countries.

Source: The Indian Express