Emergence of Imran Khan as the lead contender for Pakistan’s Prime Ministership is being seen as a setback to Indo-Pak ties.
Notably, neither he nor the Pakistani military establishment that backed him are serious about bettering relationship with India.
How have the ties been historically?
Several issues account for the dismal state of India-Pakistan relations.
Prominent among them are the wounds of Partition and the chronic Kashmir issue, four armed conflicts, and jihadi terrorism against India.
Increasing radicalisation in Pakistan, Indus water dispute, the military-civilian equation in Pakistan are other trouble points.
While Pakistan has experienced bouts of both civilian governments and direct military rule since its independence, ties with India have always been inimical.
Nonetheless, there have been periodic détentes at the highest level with signing of agreements, declarations etc..., but nothing has been sustainable.
What is the context in which Mr. Khan’s reaped victory?
The Pakistani military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is said to have paved the way for Mr. Khan’s victory.
This was done by tacitly supporting Mr. Khan’s street protests against former PM Nawaz Sharif on alleged corruption charges.
Subsequently, the judiciary was visibly coerced to proceed swiftly against Mr. Sharif and his sentencing (1o years imprisonment) was secured.
Further, the military worked to divide the conservative support base of Mr. Sharif by propping up several extremist religious groups in the electoral fray.
More importantly, media houses were allegedly subjected to immense pressure to render a positive coverage for Khan.
Despite all this, Mr. Khan couldn’t secure a full majority, making him implicitly depended on the military for steering his government.
What could India expect from Mr. Khan’s rise?
Pakistani military has almost always displayed an India bashing attitude, as that helps it sustain considerable public clout.
Considering the extent of Mr. Khan’s dependence on the Pakistani Military, there is little hope for any betterment in ties.
Notably, even the former PM Sharif, who had a pro-India inclination, had to downplay it considerably to survive against the military’s affront.
In fact, Mr. Sharif even launched tirades against India on Kashmir, displayed a lack of will to investigate Pakistani jihadi attacks on against India.
He even failed to crack down on extremist elements that were responsible for the Mumbai terror attacks and also didn’t deliver on trade issues.
What are Mr. Khan’s assertions?
Mr. Khan has stated that his government would be proactive in wanting to solve the Kashmir issue in accordance with UN resolutions.
While what his actions in this regard would be is uncertain, India has set the crackdown on terrorist elements as a pre-condition for talks.
This is unlikely, as Mr. Khan is known for his association with extremist elements and anti-Indian fundamentalists for strategic reasons.
Mr. Khan’s Afghan policy is also likely to be at odds with India’s, as he seeks to usher in an economic model intertwined with an Islamic outlook.
Mr. Khan’s swipes at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his belief that India favoured Mr. Sharif over him will only complicate matters further.
