Challenges to the Quadrilateral Alliance

What is the issue?

While an anti-Chinese alliance is taking shape in the Indo-Pacific, it is not easy to sustain it in the prevailing circumstances.

What is the international context?

• U.S. President Trump believes in a world governed by self-interest, with little room for shared responsibility.
• In contrast, Chinese President Xi is taking the high road, is projecting himself as a firm believer in globalisation and free trade.
• Notably, the former confronts major opposition to his policies within the U.S, while the latter’s grip on China is almost total.
• Against this backdrop, a coalition of all those willing to align with the U.S. against China’s expanding ambitions is shaping up.

What are the recent developments?

• Official level talks were held recently, between the U.S., Japan, Australia & India for establishing the “Quadrilateral Alliance”.
• This marks a major shift in India’s foreign policy, as it is an active alignment to an emergent power block.  
• As China’s expansionist attitudes intensify, more countries are expected to align with the Quadrilateral group.
• Notably, this is the first time that India has indicated a resolve to align openly with the U.S. to tackle issues specific to Indo-Pacific.
• This enhances the Indo-US cooperation as major defence partners.

What is China’s Position?

• Political - China too seems eager to fight the challenges of a counter-alliance.

• The Communist Party Congress emphasised on a strong military, signalling little willingness for compromise.
• It also reinforced Mr. Xi’s paramount leadership and clearly elaborated on China’s ambitions for global leadership.
• Notably, Mr.Xi adopted a hard line on many contentious issues in the region and beyond, reiterating an aggressive foreign policy.
• Economic Might - China is positioned most advantageously as far as economic aspects are concerned.
• It is the most important trading partner for over 90 countries and a massive economic power house.  
• Although the economic benefits of its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) are disputed, it has definitely got a favoured reception by most countries.

What are the challenges for the alliance?

• Most Asian nations don’t actually have an unfavourable opinion on China despite its reckless foreign policy.
• China has embarked on a charm offensive to win the support of Asian nations through lavish aid offers.
• Even Mr.Trump, seemed to have softened his criticism of China, after China produced some attractive mega deals.
• Only India, Japan & Vietnam have shown some willing to build an opposition to China’s designs.
• Also, nations in the quadrilateral alliance haven’t stated a clear vision and gave separate press releases that were vastly divergent.
• The opinions varied form ‘joint security patrol’ to ‘funding mechanism to counter BRI’.

How does the future look?

• The Quadrilateral idea is likely to further irk China.
• As developments become clearer with the formal setting up of the Quadrilateral, China is certain to counter it proactively.
• This will pave the way for a new round of turmoil and China would use both force and inducements to win more countries to its side.
• The consequences of this could be quite significant for peace and stability in the Asian region.

Source: The Hindu