China’s inroads into South Asia since the mid-2000s have eroded India’s traditional primacy in the region.
India is reaching out to Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal but these smaller countries are keeping options open.
How has India’s regional strategy evolved off late?
As China deploys its formidable financial resources and develops its strategic clout across South Asia, India faces capacity challenges to stem the offensive.
India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy, unveiled in 2014, has consequently focused on reaching out to develop partnerships across the region in collaboration with like any minded powers.
This strategy marks a departure from India’s earlier efforts to insulate South Asia as its exclusive sphere of influence.
What are the developments in line with the new approach?
With the US, India now conducts close consultations on smaller states such as Nepal, Bangladesh, or Sri Lanka.
Tokyo and New Delhi developed a joint “Vision 2025” to work in consultation with other partners for better regional integration and improved connectivity in the Bay of Bengal region.
In 2014, India and Russia signed an agreement to cooperate on developing nuclear power in third countries, with a focus on Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
India has also engaged in dialogues about maritime security in the Indian Ocean region with various European countries.
Finally, contrasting with its past reluctance to involve multilateral organisations, India has enthusiastically endorsed the “South Asia Sub regional Economic Cooperation” (SASEC).
How can these partnerships be expanded?
Institutionalisation - To increase mutual consultation, India and partner countries must invest in creating institutional mechanisms dedicated to sharing assessments on South Asia.
Fringe issues that overshadow relationships must give way to specific bilateral dialogues on specifics like political & strategic issues and counter-terrorism & maritime security.
Economic issues focused on connectivity, trade & investment initiatives and developmental issues focused on aid projects & other assistance initiatives should also be given priority.
Leveraging Strengths – Caliberated strategic co-ordination between India & its extra-regional partners according to their respective strengths is primoridial.
In Bangladesh, for example, India has focused on political and capacity-building objectives, while Japan is concentrating its financial might in infrastructure projects.
Similarly, India and the US have successfully coordinated their political postures on the Maldives.
Joint Projects – India should aspire to integrate efforts and implement joint projects across a variety of sectors in the region.
This will require expanding bilateral dialogues to include third countries, on the model of the India-US-Afghanistan trilateral.
What are the Challenges ahead?
Indian Primacy - The primary challenge is ensuring that the extra-regional partners continue to recognise India as predominant player in the region.
China Card - The region’s small states are playing an increasingly sophisticated balancing game, seeking to play off India and its partners against China.
This calls for closer consultation and coordination will be key.
Human Rights - When it comes to the issues of democracy and human rights, New Delhi and its like minded friends will also face occasional tensions given their different priorities.
India’s priority will remain the economic and security interests of the neighbourhood.
On the contrary, West’s liberal impulse will favour a value-based approach that emphasises pressure on authoritarian regimes.
Rohingya Crisis – As a case in point, the “human rights” issue is currently playing out in Myanmar, with clashing Indian and Western positions being contrary.
Under rising international pressure, Naypyidaw is tilting back to China for support, further complicating India’s plans.
Similar dynamics can also be observed in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and the Maldives.
These further highlight how critical India’s global outreach efforts are for its quest to remain influential in its own region.
