Official census data on China's population was released recently by its National Bureau of Statistics.
It showed that in the decade up to 2020, China’s population grew at its slowest rate since the 1950s, indicating a falling population.
What are the highlights?
Population - China's population has grown from 134 crore in 2010 by 5.34% over the past decade.
It now stands at 141.2 crore people.
Growth rate - The rate of population growth, however, has been steadily falling; falling for the fourth consecutive year.
Annually, the country grew 0.53% in the last 10 years, down from 0.57% between 2000 and 2010.
This is the slowest of any decade since the 1950s.
Age composition – In 2020, 1.2 crore babies were born in China, down from 1.465 crore in 2019, a fall of 18% in one year.
The country’s fertility rate has dropped to 1.3.
This is far below the replacement level of 2.1 required for a generation to have enough children to replace it.
The country’s working population (between ages 15 and 59) is now 63.35% of the total, down by 6.79% from 2010.
The number of people above age 60 has also gone up to 18.7% of the population, up by 5.44% from the last census.
A positive factor is the greater proportion of children 14 years or younger, now at close to 18% of the population, up by 1.35% from 2010.
This rise has been credited to China relaxing its strict one-child policy in 2016 and allowing two children per family.
[ The controversial one-child policy was put into force in the late 1970s.
Authorities claim that it helped the country avert severe food and water shortages.
But, theoretically, it prevented up to 40 crore people from being born. ]
What is unique to China here?
China’s slowing population growth is part of a trend seen in many countries in Asia and the West.
It mirrors the trends seen in neighbouring South Korea and Japan.
In 2020, South Korea saw its population decline for the first time in history.
In the United States too, the birth rate has dropped to 1.6, the lowest on record.
Prosperous countries like Japan and Germany face similar demographic challenges.
But they can depend on investments in factories, technology and foreign assets.
But China, despite being the world’s second-largest economy, is still a middle-income society.
So, unlike the other developed countries that are part of this population trend, this will be a problem unique to China.
It still depends on labour-intensive manufacturing and farming.
So, a drop in demographic dividend could hurt China and other developing nations like India more than those in the rich world.
What are the challenges ahead?
The UN expects China’s population to begin declining after 2030.
But some experts say this could happen as early as in the next one or two years.
By 2025, the country is set to lose its ‘most populous’ tag to India. [India, in 2020, had an estimated 138 crore people, 1.5% behind China.]
It implies fewer young people joining the workforce and the existing population rapidly ageing.
When the young population in a country declines, it creates labour shortages, creating a major detrimental impact on the economy.
More older people also means that demands for healthcare and pensions can soar.
This, in turn, will burden the country’s social spending system further when fewer people are working and contributing to it.
What are the policy measures taken?
Policymakers will now have to find ways of sustaining China’s high growth despite the above.
In an effort to overcome this challenge, the Chinese government announced recently that it would increase the retirement age by a few months every year.
While some welcome the move, others are unhappy about being forced to continue working.
For the past four decades, the retirement age in China has been 60 for men and 55 for women, or 50 for women in blue-collar jobs.
The government is also expected to increase incentives for couples to have more children.
This comes although such sops have failed in the past in the face of higher cost-of-living challenges and career choices.
Authorities have also been urged to completely drop restrictions on the number of children allowed per family.
