‘Raul Castro’ recently initiated a power transition in Cuba on his own volition by anointing ‘Miguel Díaz-Canel’ as his successor and getting him elected.
This is very significant as it marks a calculated break from the Castors, who’ve been at the helm for about 6 decades now.
Who have ruled Cuba thus far?
The 1959 revolution saw Fidel Castro led communist rebels take over the Cuban administration from the pro-U.S. Batista regime.
Since then, Fidel held on to the helm for 49 years till 2008, when he retired due to health reasons after anointing his brother Raul Castro as his successor.
Notably, Cuba is a single party state and elections for political positions are held from within its party members.
Raul Castro recently completed his 2nd five year term as President and had anointed ‘Miguel Díaz-Canel’ as his successor.
Notably, Raul made it clear as early as 2011 that he would relinquish power after the 2nd term and ensure a smooth transition.
He also started grooming his successor early into his 2nd term and has now got him elected to the top within the National Assembly.
Hence, Mr.Miguel, an engineer who rose through the ranks of the Communist Party has now assumed charge, in what is seen as a historic power transition.
What are the challenges?
Transition - For any state born in revolution, 1st transfer of power to a new generation is always politically risky.
Mr.Miguel now faces the tough task of balancing the interests of the ideologically rooted older revolutionary comrades who still dominate the Communist Party.
But Raul will continue till 2021 as the First Secretary of the Communist party - the main body that formulates major national policies.
Hence, while the transition at the helm is indeed significant, it is not expected to unleash any instability as Raul would continue to wield considerable power.
Economy - Cuban economy presents its own set of challenges, and abolition of the troublesome “Duel currency system” is the immediate challenge.
Also, resorting to IMF or WB for assistance is not an option for Cuba as its revolution was rooted in antipathy against these institutions.
Raul had earlier began a slow and tricky market reforms by easing restrictions on private enterprise, and now this will have to be furthered cautiously.
If markets are liberalised too fast, it would alienate the ‘Old Guard’ and if too slow, growth will take a beating and regime critics will become more vocal.
Political Freedom - A growing cohort of critics against the regime is another major challenge to deal with in the internet era.
Notably, Mr.Miguel supported a recent counter offensive launched by hardliner communists, vilifying critical bloggers – which has worried liberals.
Censorship is another stress point that Raul had sought to delicately address during his rule by a policy of “slow continued incremental liberalisation”.
But Raul had enjoyed undisputed influence over the Communist Party to make these bold moves, which his successor might find hard to emulate.
US relations – The Obama regime build a positive relation with Cuba and even established diplomatic ties for the 1st time, but Trump has reversed all.
Additionally, the Trump administration has largely outsourced Cuba policy to the conservative anti-Castro Cuban-Americans in the Congress.
Trump has also downsized the U.S. embassy in Cuba as strange incidence of unexplained sickness was reported by diplomats.
How is the public reception?
A considerable chunk of the younger masses look optimistic with a new leadership at the helm and excited about the power transition.
But as Castros had held sway for as long as most Cubans could remember, there is anxiety on whether newer leadership wound mean instability.
Nevertheless, Mr.Miguel represents a younger and aspiring generation that is looking forward to strong economic progress and political freedom.
He could ensure that by co-opting all stakeholders, political stability get entrenched despite the reforms.
