Ethiopia and Eritrea have recently announced the end of the deadly “20-year war” between them, which killed over 80,000 people.
The future looks bright, with both countries announcing the resumption of trade, diplomatic, and travel ties between them.
What is the history of the conflict?
Eritrea broke from its federation with Ethiopia in April 1993.
It became an independent country located strategically at the mouth of the Red Sea on the Horn of Africa, bordering crucial shipping lanes.
War - In 1999, war broke out between the two countries over the control of Badme, a border town of no apparent significance.
Massive displacements of population followed, families were torn apart, and the local trading economy was utterly destroyed.
Detente - In 2000, “Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities” was signed, and later a Boundary Commission was established to settle the dispute.
The Commission gave its ruling in 2002, awarding Badme to Eritrea, but Ethiopia demanded certain pre-conditions to accept the ruling.
In this backdrop, Badme continued to remain under Ethiopian control and there was an effective stalemate with intermittent border classes.
Peace - Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) had recently indicated its desire to end hostilities with Eritrea.
From then on, things have moved rapidly and Ethiopia has also announced that it would fully comply with the peace agreement of 2000.
What is the likely impact of peace?
Ethiopia is landlocked, and through the years of the war with Eritrea, it has been dependent heavily on Djibouti for access to the sea.
The current peace deal will likely give Ethiopia access to Eritrean ports, which will help in counter balancing the dependence on Djibouti.
For Eritrea too, peace is likely to work to its benefit, as it can divert scarce resources away from the military to other productive avenues.
Notably, the government of President Afwerki in Eritrea has also come under international pressure for its authoritarian streak and violent means.
Accepting peace would ease international pressure and also solve the 2015-16 refugee crisis that was precipitated due to Eritrean regime’s oppressive ways.
