The impact of the Ukraine war on global interconnectedness is a cause for worry in the post-World War order.
What are the possible impacts of the Ukraine crisis on the global world order?
The impact the Ukraine crisis is fragmenting in every respect of global interconnectedness — in terms of international cooperation, security, military use, economic order, and even cultural ties.
The UN and Security Council- The events in Ukraine have exposed the United Nations and the Security Council for their complete ineffectiveness.
Russia’s actions in Ukraine in terms of refusing to seek an international mandate, seem no different from the war by the U.S. in Iraq in 2003, Israel’s bombing of Lebanon in 2006 and the Saudi-coalition’s attacks of Yemen in 2015.
The direct missile strikes and bombing of Ukrainian cities exacting both military and civilian casualties, and the creation of millions of refugees, run counter to every line of the UN Charter preamble.
A vote of the UN General Assembly (UNGA), that decried Moscow’s actions was brushed off by Russia’s veto.
Other P-5 members such as the U.S., the UK and France did not seek to strengthen the global order either.
Whither nuclear safeguards- Russian target on areas near Chernobyl and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power is worrisome in a country that has suffered the worst impacts of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
The world must consider the cost to the nuclear non-proliferation regime’s credibility where Ukraine and Libya that willingly gave up nuclear programmes have been invaded.
The covenants agreed upon during the global war on terrorism have been degraded with the use of non-state actors in the Ukraine crisis.
Economic actions- Economic sanctions include the eviction of Russia from SWIFT payments, cancellation of Mastercard, Visa, American Express and Paypal, sanctioning of specific Russian businesses and pressure on Western businesses operating in Russia to shut down.
The arbitrary and unilateral nature of western sanctions rub against the international financial order set up under the WTO.
Gradually, the world may see a “non-dollar” system emerge which would run banking, fintech and credit systems separately from the dollar world.
New Delhi uses a rupee-rouble mechanism while China uses UnionPay as an alternative trading arrangement.
Isolation by culture- There is the western objective to isolate Russia, socially and culturally, that rails against the global liberal order.
The EU’s ban of all Russian-owned, Russian-controlled or Russian-registered planes from EU airspace will ensure that travel to and from Russia is severely curtailed.
The isolation extends to art and music - the Bolshoi Ballet’s performances in London and Madrid were cancelled.
What should New Delhi think about?
The events by Russia have reversed many of the ideas of 1945 and 1990, fragmenting the international order established with the UN, ushering in an era of deglobalisation.
India’s abstentionist responses and its desire not to be critical of any of the actions taken by the big powers might keep Indians safe in the short term.
In the long term, it is only those nations that move proactively to uphold, strengthen and reinvent the global order that will make the world a safer place.
