The nature and dynamics of South-Asian geopolitics are undergoing a radical transformation.
India needs to see through many balancing acts to deal with the regional tensions.
What is the geo-political scenario in South-Asia?
South Asia has been one of the world’s most volatile regions and hitherto dominated by the United States.
The region is now at a transformative stage with far-reaching implications for the states in the region, including India.
Russia and China are jointly and individually challenging the U.S.’s pre-eminence and influencing the smaller countries in the region.
The resultant geopolitical competition for space, power and influence is undoing the traditional geopolitical certainties in South-Asia.
History shows that a favourable unipolarity or a balanced multipolarity with some amount of great power contribution is generally better than unbalanced multipolarity.
Unbalanced multipolarity when combined with a situation of power transition (the case now with South-Asia) might be destabilising.
How does the China pivot work here?
U.S.'s role as the regional pivot and power manager is becoming a thing of the past with China gradually taking the spot.
Regional geopolitics, from Iran to Central Asia and from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean region, is increasingly being shaped by China.
When new powers are on an ascendance, its neighbours tend to recalibrate their policies and old partnerships and alliances.
What are the other features of this regional power play?
Trust deficit - There is a presence of an extreme trust deficit among the various actors in the region.
There is, for long, the trust deficit between India and Pakistan, and China and India.
But beside this, trust deficit exists between even seemingly friendly partners such as the U.S. and India, Russia and China.
This is also the case with traditional partners such as Iran and India, and Russia and India.
This, when combined with some unresolved conflicts, misunderstandings or a crisis, could easily lead to more conflicts and friction.
War talk - The rising war talk in the region is yet another contemporary feature of the Southern Asian regional sub-system.
The possibility of a military conflict between Iran and the U.S. could draw many more countries in the region into it.
This could, in turn, lead to widespread instability.
Besides these, there are other issues that sustains the unrest conditions in the region, which include -
the potential for India-Pakistan border skirmishes
an escalating China-U.S. trade war
many proxy and cold wars in Afghanistan and West Asia
What lies before India?
India has to adopt some balancing acts which is perhaps the most appropriate strategy, given the current circumstances.
U.S. - Getting too close to the U.S. will provoke China, and vice versa.
India will have to balance between its innate desire to get closer to the U.S. and the need of not excessively provoking China.
West Asia - India would have to take care of its energy and other interests (including the Chabahar project) with Iran.
At the same, it has to ensure that these do not alienate the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Notably, Iran’s share in India’s energy imports is steadily decreasing.
However, alienating Iran might not suit India’s strategic interests in the longer run.
Russia-China - Dealing with the Russia-China partnership will be crucial for India’s continental strategy.
This applies to the issues of arms sales, the Afghan question, and checking Chinese dominance of the region.
India should be clever enough to exploit the not-so-apparent fissures between China and Russia.
A related concern is the growing relationship between Pakistan and Russia, which India must deal with by smart diplomacy rather than outrage.
Pakistan-China - Pakistan is advocating a policy of revision or modification, and China is a rising superpower and an already status quoist power.
China could potentially be persuaded to check Pakistan’s revisionist tendencies.
This again requires a great deal of subtle effort from India to convince China that it has great stakes in regional strategic stability.
Notably, despite the sharp differences and unavoidable strategic competition, China and India share a stake in the region’s stability.
Afghanistan - If India is serious about having a say in Afghanistan’s future, it would need to enact several balancing acts there.
This involves managing between Russia and China, China and Pakistan, the Taliban and Kabul, and the Taliban and Pakistan.
In a constantly changing Afghan geopolitical landscape, the contents of India’s interests should also evolve.
In all, engaging in a delicate balancing game is undeniably the need of the hour.
