PM Modi is scheduled to visit Beijing soon for the “Shanghai Cooperation Organisation” (SCO) summit.
More importantly, an informal bilateral with China (on the sidelines) is on the agenda, which assumes significance in the current global geo-political context.
What is the emerging geopolitical context in the international arena?
In the backdrop of turbulence in global politics and some domestic concerns about India “softening” its China policy, PM Modi is slated to visit China.
Confrontation - Tensions between major international players has been mounting with the “US (and allies) vs. Russia” standoff arguably getting worse.
Both countries have been confronting each other through proxies in major conflict zones like Ukraine, Syria and Afghanistan.
The recent U.S.-French-British missile strikes in Syria were a significant flare up although it has now emerged that the Russians were intimated in advance.
This prompt intimation helped in moving out people and equipment in time.
But there is always a serious risk of miscalculation at the local level that might spark off a direct confrontation between the major powers.
US Sanctions - The U.S. has passed a new law called “Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act” (CAATSA).
This empowers the US President to impose sanctions on any company/entity which has business ties with a country that is already facing US sanctions.
Notably, Russia is currently under US sanctions - which implies that counties like India, which have deep defence ties with Russia, could also be implicated.
Significantly, US had recently widened its sanctions ambit by cracking down on Russian multinationals whose stocks are internationally traded.
China’s Detente - While the U.S. has been increasing pressure on Russia, it has strikingly started soft peddling its dealing with China.
Notably, India is being asked sternly to make efforts to address its trade surplus of about $25 billion with the U.S. repeatedly.
But on the contrary, China holds a humongous $375 billion trade surplus with the US, which is now being meekly requested to addressing this issue.
More at odds is the fact that 2017 alone saw China enhance its trade surplus with the US by about $28 billion.
Agreements - USA’s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), has effectively benefited China in the “Pacific Rim”.
This has given China more leverage in negotiating the “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership” (RCEP) to its advantage.
Notably, RCEP is being envisioned as a trade block comprising of the “ASEAN + six” countries of which India is also a part.
Unpredictability – Uncertainty prevailing in the seemingly impulsive U.S. foreign policy is driving even its closest allies to hedge their options.
Japanese PM Abe and Mr. Xi are to exchange visits soon, which is a significant development for the countries that were at the brink of war some 5 years ago.
Japan (like India) is also concerned about China’s global assertiveness and the geopolitical implications of its “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI).
Yet, Mr. Abe seems to have seen merit in engaging with China as US is has been very inconsistent in its commitment to the region.
China on the other hand derives a positive from the fact that a longstanding stated close US ally is open to engaging with it on significant domains.
What are the implications for India?
The escalation of the US Russia acrimony could put India under intense pressure, which could prove detrimental in sustaining its defence arsenal.
Russia has already upgraded its defence ties Pakistan and China, and it could become bilaterally catastrophic for India to disengage with Russia.
Chinese Outreach - As the Russia-China axis has strengthened lately, it is prudent for India to engage now China to hedge its diplomatic manoeuvres.
Additionally, it is also a positive that, the US policy focus is presently engaged elsewhere, and that the Chinese frontier is seeing a worldwide easing.
Core Interests - A softening stand towards China doesn’t mean that India will have to compromise on its core economic and strategic interests.
We can’t overlook China’s foray into the Indian neighbourhood, the border skirmishes, and the China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC).
But we can seek to cooperate on other areas despite these thorny issues with, which could eventually help in resolving these core concerns too.
While asymmetries in relationships are inevitable, it is the responsibility of the policymakers to address them – which is often better when done discreetly.
Public Outreach - The course of India-China relations in the past couple of years had created a politicised narrative of bilateral frictions.
CPEC, Doklam, NSG, BRI and confrontations at the UNSC have all been areas led to the build-up of a strong anti-China opinion among the Indian masses.
There is hence a public disconnect to India’s current political outreach towards China, which needs to be addressed through people-to-people engagements.
The geopolitical reality demands India to maintain an equidistant engagement will all major powers for the time being.
