Global Conversation on Depopulation

Why in news?

As the world population touched 8 billion, the headlines are focusing India which is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2023.

What is the global picture of population?

• Global picture - Countries such as Japan, South Korea and Europe, which are experiencing falling fertility and nearing the inflection point of population declines.
• As per the United Nations estimates, the world’s population is expected to grow until 2086.
• India’s case - India’s population stands at 1.412 billion in 2022 and is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023.
• According to UNFPA, India will have one of the youngest populations in the world till 2030 and the youth bulge will last till 2025.
• India’s population will begin to decline only in 2063.

To know about transformation challenges in population growth, click here

What about the fertility rate in India?

• Fertility rate- India’s total fertility rate (2) is now below the replacement rate of fertility (2.1).
• States such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu had already achieved the replacement fertility in late 199os.
• Even though it appear as if these States are facing a surge of migrants from the more populous northern States, both States had negative net migration rates, as of 2011.
• Consequences - In the coming years, these states will have an ageing population and a declining workforce.
• Among the female elderly in particular, economic dependence is a serious concern.
• Need of the hour – There is a need to re-examine the continued sustainability of low in-migration.

What challenges do India face due to depopulation?

Depopulation refers to substantial reduction in the population of an area.

• Skewed sex ratio - As per the latest NFHS, families with at least one son are less likely to want more children than families with just one daughter.
• Regional disparities – The southern states already have fertility rates well below replacement levels in contrast to certain northern states.
• There is a mismatch in educational attainment between a rising cohort in the north and the needs of the economy emerging in the south.
• If Parliament were reapportioned according to the 2026 population, the five southern states would send fewer representatives while the four most populous Hindi heartland states would add to the seats.
• Anti-Muslim tone - The sharp anti-Muslim tone in the conversation has remained even though fertility between Hindus and Muslims is converging.
• Missing elements - The global conversation on depopulation do not talk about
  1. Equitable sharing of housework
  2. Access to subsidised childcare that allows women to have families as well as a career
  3. Lowered barriers to immigration to enable entry to working-age people from countries which aren’t yet in population decline

References

1. The Hindu│ It’s time to discuss depopulation
2. WSJ│ India May Face a Population Implosion