Peace Process in Afghanistan - A Vietnam Comparison
iasparliament
August 06, 2019
What is the issue?
America’s retreat strategy in Afghanistan now reflects much its Vietnam war campaign in the late 1960s.
Here is a comparison of these two notable processes in history.
What was the U.S.’s role in Vietnam?
The U.S.’s involvement in Vietnam goes back to the last years of French colonial rule.
The U.S. first backed France against the Viet Minh guerrillas.
After France exited Vietnam in 1954, the U.S. backed South Vietnam against the communist-led North.
Initially, the U.S. involvement was limited to advisory roles.
But in August 1964, the U.S. destroyer, USS Maddox, was attacked by North Vietnamese torpedo boats in the Gulf of Tonkin, off the Vietnamese coast.
So, the Lyndon Johnson administration steadily escalated the U.S.’s role thereafter; the American troop deployment in Vietnam was increased.
How did U.S’s withdrawal happen?
Public opinion - In Vietnam, the U.S. was negotiating from a position of weakness.
By the late 1960s, American public opinion had largely turned against the war.
America’s search and destroy operations in communist-dominated villages in the south and its air campaign in the north only fuelled Vietnamese hostility.
Besides, the South Vietnamese regime that the U.S. had supported was unpopular, oppressive and weak at the same time.
Exit Strategy - Given these, Richard Nixon (elected the US President in 1968) first started “Vietnamising” the war, by reducing the U.S. troop presence in Vietnam.
He also shifted the focus from direct participation in land war to training and advisory roles, while continuing with air strikes.
Talks - Nixon assigned Henry Kissinger, the National Security Adviser, to hold talks with the communist North Vietnam, seeking “peace with honour”.
Mr. Kissinger started talks with Le Duc Tho, a North Vietnamese revolutionary and diplomat.
When talks were deadlocked, the U.S. offered to pull out of the South as a compromise.
Exit - The war became a long, divisive conflict between the communist government of North Vietnam, and South Vietnam and its principal ally, the U.S.
By the late 1960s, it became evident to American leaders that they could not win the Vietnam war.
The Americans were actually prolonging a war they had already lost.
The goal was not to defeat North Vietnam but to stop them from taking over the South, the American ally.
In 1973, the U.S., North Vietnam and representatives of South Vietnam and Viet Cong, the communist guerillas from the South, signed the Paris Peace Accords.
The North and the South agreed to a ceasefire and continue holding peace talks, while the U.S. agreed to pull troops out of Vietnam.
What is the present state in Afghanistan?
The U.S. went into Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on U.S.
At the peak of the war here, there were over 1,00,000 troops.
Despite the massive deployment of troops and superior air power, the U.S. got stuck in the war and failed to stabilize the country.
Consequently, America is fighting in Afghanistan for nearly 18 years, which is longer than America’s direct military involvement in Vietnam.
How is it similar with Vietnam?
Much like in Vietnam war, the U.S. has now realised that it cannot win the Afghan war.
Similarly, the American goal is no longer defeating the Taliban but to stop them, at least for now, from taking over Kabul.
Just as Nixon wanted to get out of Vietnam, President Donald Trump too wants to get out of Afghanistan.
In the case of Afghanistan as well, the U.S. is negotiating from a position of weakness.
The war entered a stalemate long ago. America’s allies in Afghanistan stand divided.
The government in Kabul, which the U.S. backs, is known for infighting and chronic corruption.
The security forces are struggling to ensure basic security to the public, even in the capital city.
Like Nixon’s “Vietnamisation”, U.S. President Barack Obama had started “Afghanising” the war.
He has pulled out most troops and moved the remainder to training and advisory roles.
The Afghan war is also unpopular in America, much as how Vietnam war was among Vietnamese.
What is the ongoing peace process?
Given the present conditions, the U.S. cannot unilaterally pull out, especially when the Taliban is on the offensive.
That would cause a lasting stain on America’s already weakened reputation as the world’s pre-eminent military power.
So, the situations demand a deal, and finding one is Ambassador Khalilzad’s mission (Khalilzad is an Afghan-American diplomat).
Mr. Khalilzad has already held multiple rounds of talks with the Taliban’s representatives in Doha, Qatar.
Reportedly, the U.S. and the Taliban have agreed to a road map for peace.
The U.S. has agreed for a withdrawal in return for the Taliban’s assurance that Afghanistan would not be used by terrorists.
The U.S. has already made two big compromises by agreeing to the Taliban demand that the Afghan government should be kept away from the peace process.
Second, the U.S. continued to hold talks even in the absence of a ceasefire.
As a result, the Taliban continued its terror campaign even when the peace process was under way. Click here to know more.
How does the future look?
When the U.S. was forced to pull out of Vietnam, the Southern and Northern governments had not reached any settlement but for the ceasefire.
In the 2 years after the U.S. pulled out, the communists captured Saigon in South and the government crumbled.
Likewise, what would happen to the Afghan government once America had withdrawn is uncertain.
However, in Vietnam’s case, the Communists unified Vietnam, and after early years of struggle, modernised the economy and rebuilt the country into an Asian powerhouse.
Unlike the Viet Cong, the Taliban is an anti-modern, anti-woman, anti-minority fundamentalist structure.
Given these, the peace process in Afghanistan is much more challenging.
