With declining control over Syria, the IS is possibly facing a defeat in the region.
However, the search for a political solution in Syria should continue to ensure that the IS does not resurface in the region.
How has IS's control shrunk?
The Islamic State, at its peak, controlled territories spanning the Iraq-Syria border of the size of Great Britain.
It is now fighting for half a square kilometre in eastern Syria.
The battle for Kobane in 2015 marked the beginning of the end of the IS.
Since then, Syrian Kurdish rebels have been in the forefront of the war.
When the IS lost bigger cities such as Raqqa and Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria, militants moved to Baghouz and the deserts in the south.
After the SDF moved to Baghouz, an eastern Syrian village, several civilians fled the village.
The efforts by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish-led rebel group assisted by the U.S., have resulted in a blockade in Baghouz.
About 500 IS jihadists along with 4,000 women and children are caught in Baghouz.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that nearly 59,000 people have left IS-held territory and at least 4,000 jihadists have surrendered in recent times.
Does this mean the IS's defeat?
Victory in Baghouz will also mean the IS’s territorial caliphate is shattered.
However, the IS is basically an insurgent-jihadist group.
It has established cells, especially in Syria and Iraq, which have continued to carry out terror attacks even as IS territories kept shrinking.
The group thus has a presence in Syria’s vast deserts.
This is a tactic its predecessor, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AOI), successfully used when it was in decline during 2006-2011 after its leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed by the U.S.
When the Syrian civil war broke, the remnants of AQI found an opportunity for revival and rebranded themselves as the Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria.
The IS was born when al-Nusra split.
Given these, the liberation of Baghouz or the destruction of the territorial caliphate does not necessarily mean that the IS has been defeated.
What lies ahead?
The U.S., the Kurdish rebels, the Syrian government and other stakeholders in the region should be mindful of the geopolitical and sectarian minefields of the IS.
Mr. Trump has already announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria.
The Turkish government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is wary of the rapid rise of the Syrian Kurds. Click here to know more.
Syrian Kurds are organisationally and ideologically aligned with Kurdish rebels on the Turkish side.
The Syrian regime, on its part, has vowed to re-establish its authority over the Kurdish autonomous region in the northeast.
If Turkey and Syria attack Kurdish rebels, who were vital in the battle against the IS, north-eastern Syria would again be in a crisis, facilitating the jihadists.
To avoid such a crisis, there must be an orderly U.S. withdrawal and a political solution to the Syrian civil war.
