Kerala Migration Survey, conducted by the Centre for Development Studies, released its report recently.
What are the findings of the report?
There are 2.1 million emigrants from Kerala across the world, of which 15.8 per cent are women.
The emigration from the state has shown a fall of 11.6 per cent in the last five years.
It found that there has been a reduction of 3 lakh emigrants in 2013-18, which is one-tenth of the number of emigrants in 2013.
The report attributes the following reasons for the dip in migration-
Demography - Demographic advances have decreased population in the migration-prone age group (15-29 years) as Kerala attained replacement level of fertility as early as 1987.
Wages - Wages in Gulf countries have not improved after the global economic crisis.
It has led to lower savings and demotivating people to migrate.
Kerala has the highest wage rate in the informal sector in India, and hence wages in Kerala have increased compared to other states.
Price rise - Prices of oil have been declining since 2010 impacting the growth of the Gulf economy.
Other sectors like Construction too are not as vibrant as it used to be.
Nationalisation - Policies such as Nitaqat and family taxes in Saudi Arabia provides a non-conducive environment for current and prospective migrants.
Increasingly, native youth are trained and employed in occupations that once went to migrants.
Skilled migration – Of the total emigrants, 42.3% are graduates or have a higher qualification.
Investment in education have made Keralites skilled and made them migrate to the developed economies in the West.
People are also increasingly migrating to the West through the Gulf.
How emigration helped Keralites?
Emigration and remittances have played a predominant role in enabling households in Kerala to meet their basic needs and to invest in assets.
Migrants use over 40% of their remittances on purchasing land, construction and repayment of housing mortgage.
One in every five households in Kerala has a migrant.
Among religious groups, one in three households is a Muslim, one in five households is a Christian, and one in 10 households is a Hindu.
The estimated total remittances to Kerala are Rs 85,000 crore.
Remittances to the state have increased with Keralites in the Gulf climbing the social ladder and earning higher wages.
With depreciating rupee, more can be remitted to families in Kerala than earlier.
Hence, Even Non-emigrant families plan to send someone as a livelihood strategy to cope with the loss of assets and livelihoods.
But the trend has reversed with emigration from Kerala is falling and return migration is on the rise.
The long history of migration from Kerala to the Gulf is in its last phase.
Where does the future lie?
Kerala faces replacement migration, which has close to 3 million migrants from other states who have replaced workers who have left for the Gulf countries.
Impact of recent floods may find them leaving to their home states for better opportunities.
This might require further migration and remittances to rebuild kerala.
Also, demographic pressures like ageing might affect the local economy in the future.
Hence, Kerala has to slowly move towards a new model from the remittance-dependent economy that it is today.
