India-China Relations: Amidst the Pandemic and Border Disputes
iasparliament
May 17, 2021
What is the issue?
It has been a year since the news of tensions between Indian and Chinese troops on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh first broke (May-June 2020).
With this, here is an assessment of the developments so far, the present conditions and the future challenges.
What happened back then?
The crisis involved Chinese ingressions and violent clash with soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in mid-June 2020.
It eventually involved seven places: Depsang plains, Galwan, Gogra, Hot Springs, North bank of Pangong Tso, Kailash range and Demchok.
With agreements to disengage from the Pangong lake area , it was planned to convene meeting of the senior commanders to address and resolve all other remaining issues.
The last such meeting of commanders was held in April 2021, but the Chinese have refused to even discuss the remaining issues.
Modi government seemed keen to announce a closure of the border crisis by creating the impression of an honourable solution against a major power.
But, no such closure is in sight yet.
What is the current situation?
The PLA troops deny India access to territories it controlled by patrolling.
With this, the government’s asserted aim of restoring the status quo ante as of April 2020 remains unfulfilled.
Even on the north bank of Pangong, a new status quo has been created where the patrolling rights are yet to be restored.
Similarly, the Kailash range has seen neither de-escalation nor de-induction so far.
So, in all, there have been no further deaths after June 2020 and no firing after early September 2020.
But, the peace on the border is both unstable and unsustainable.
Ongoing tensions, with massive deployments on each side, belie any hope of tranquillity.
Cognisant of the volatility and risk, Indian Army has undertaken a major reorientation of its units and formations towards the China border.
China-India ties are thus moving into a zone of problems even as New Delhi grapples with pandemic-related issues.
How is COVID-19 and geopolitics playing now?
India’s geopolitical concerns have been exacerbated by the devastation caused by the mismanagement of COVID-19.
Through its ‘Vaccine Maitri’ programme, New Delhi was presenting itself as a better alternative to Beijing’s vaccine diplomacy, particularly in South Asia.
But this trust was shaken, as the government has backtracked on existing contractual commitments to supply vaccines to its friendly neighbours.
So, countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have started procuring vaccines from China.
They are further casting doubts on India’s reliability as a partner and raising questions about its ability to act as a counter to China.
Sensing the opportunity, Beijing also moved in quickly, organising a meeting with all South Asian countries except India, to deal with the pandemic.
New Delhi was also the lynchpin of the Quad’s pledge to deliver a billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine throughout the Indo-Pacific by the end of 2022.
But, India is now trying to import vaccines for its own population.
Failing on its commitments to other poor countries under GAVI’s COVAX scheme, the proposal now seems to be on a weak footing.
What is the larger impact?
The failure of the government to anticipate and deal with a public health crisis has affected India’s image as an emergent power.
A weaker India is not only less attractive as a partner globally, it makes New Delhi more dependent on the US to deal with China.
This will only confirm China’s presumptions that India had been acting at the behest of the U.S. and further strain India-China ties.
Meanwhile, the threat of a two-front collusive threat after the Ladakh crisis forced the Modi government to seek peace with Pakistan.
This led to the announcement of the ceasefire on the Line of Control, and Pakistan awaits the steps on Kashmir promised by the Modi government.
But no political environment has been created in India for any such step so far.
It is hard to predict the Pakistani course of action hence.
In all, an assertive China and a vengeful Pakistan acting in concert on the land borders is a serious threat to India.
How are the pandemic-related India-China terms?
Beijing’s efforts to offer aid to India to deal with the pandemic have been largely confined to private companies and donations from the Red Cross and Red Crescent societies.
These are largely commercial contracts between private companies and not that of the Chinese government.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that India is heavily dependent on China for crucial medical supplies.
State-owned Sichuan Airlines had suspended cargo flights to India, but the supply chains have since been kept open by Beijing.
This is in tune with the Indian demand from Beijing that the supply chain should remain open.
But the other demand to ensure stable product prices has not been met.
How does the future look?
Soldiers of both armies are facing each other in Ladakh and there is lack of trust between the two countries.
With this, it is clear that the China-India bilateral relationship is moving into a zone of increasing disruptions and clashes on the disputed border, amidst the challenges of the pandemic.
