India needs to pay attention to Russian military build-up in Ukraine
iasparliament
January 21, 2022
What is the issue?
Russian military build up near Ukraine could affect India’s interest.
Why there is a Russian military build up near Ukraine?
Russia has accused the West of trying to make Ukraine anti-Russia by constantly providing modern weapons and brainwashing the population.
Russia’s demand from the West - Assurances that Ukraine will never be admitted as a member of NATO.
Deny NATO membership to other former Soviet republics.
No further eastward expansion of NATO
Response from US and EU - Some of these demands have been categorised by the US as “unacceptable”.
For the US and EU, Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West.
They are increasingly determined to keep Ukraine away from Russian control.
Efforts to induct Ukraine into NATO have been ongoing for many years and seem to have picked up pace recently.
So, Russia has amassed troops and military hardware at its border with Ukraine.
Russia could resort to such action if the demands are not met.
However Russia has reiterated that invasion is not their preferred choice.
What is Ukraine stance?
Ukraine has tilted toward the West, including the removal of a pro-Russia leader in 2014.
Russia massing of troops along Ukraine’s border is a signal that Putin will consider an invasion unless Ukraine backs away.
Russia has already annexed the Crimean Peninsula in a 2014 military operation.
What can India do?
Delhi could try its posture post the Russian annexation of Crimea.
India can neither openly criticise nor endorse Russian actions.
However, India’s silence will be seen as an endorsement.
Moscow might seek support from Delhi.
It will sell India’s silence as an endorsement, as it did in the case of Crimea.
How will it benefit China?
In case of invasion Moscow will need Beijing’s diplomatic support even more.
In dealing with India - China could ask Moscow to stall military supplies to India.
In 1962, when Moscow needed Beijing’s backing during the Cuban missile crisis
It resulted in Soviet support for ally China versus friend India at a crucial moment in the China-India war.
In dealing with EU - In order to focus on the Russia challenge, European capitals could seek to stabilise ties with China, rather than act against its assertive actions.
This could negatively affect the coordinated approach that Delhi seeks among like-minded partners to balance China.
China could potentially present itself as a useful interlocutor between the West and Moscow
China can try to deepen the cleavages between the US and Europe on itself.
China would benefit from American and European attention focused on Russia-Ukraine rather than on Asia.
How will it affect India’s interest?
In 2014, the Russian annexation of Crimea created problems for India.
If Moscow again takes military action against Ukraine, it will significantly complicate India’s objectives
In dealing with China - It would hinder Delhi’s interest from preventing a further deepening of Russia’s ties with China.
Moscow that is more beholden to Beijing would be problematic when India is dependent on Russian military supplies.
Sino-Indian border tensions could flare up again.
In dealing with Russia - Many in Delhi might argue that power often trumps.
Nonetheless, Moscow’s justifications for its actions against Ukraine are similar to those Beijing makes versus India: Historical claims, ethnic linkages, and Indian steps that it says threaten China.
Russian military action goes against respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty that Delhi frequently advocates.
The western response will involve even more sanctions on Russia.
This will hinder India’s ability to do business with Russia and diversify Russia-India ties.
All this come at a time when Washington is considering a waiver for India from CAATSA sanctions.
In dealing with Western countries - Invasion would end any near-term prospect of a rapprochement between the West and Russia.
It will complicate India’s efforts to maintain a delicate balance between its partnerships with the US, Europe, and Russia.
India-US and India-Europe contradictions on Russia will come to the fore.
India’s move to deepen security and economic ties with European partners will be affected.
A crisis nearer home could reduce the latter’s increased attention to Asia, especially India.
Indo Pacific theatre - A deteriorating situation in Europe could draw US attention away from the Indo-Pacific theatre, as Afghanistan and Middle East crises did in previous administrations.
Economic and defence trade ties with Ukraine - India has economic and defence trade ties with Ukraine
7,500-odd citizens residing there.
What needs to be done?
India will hope for a diplomatic solution and that Russia does not take military action against Ukraine.
India can privately express its concerns to Moscow.
In case of invasion India have to prepare for potential fallout for India’s interests with Russia, the West and China.
