The longest round of peace talks yet between the US and the Taliban ended recently.
It marks a shift in stands of the stakeholders and offers hopes for an ending to the prolonged war in Afghanistan.
Why the talks now?
The war in Afghanistan, the second longest armed conflict in American military history after Vietnam, has claimed thousands of lives on all sides.
Afghan civilians, US-led coalition troops, and those belonging to insurgent groups have been affected.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have together cost the American taxpayer almost $6 trillion since 2001.
So eventually, the US has realised the futility of the military option.
The need to stop the ceaseless fighting has become the top priority for all parties.
Back in 2011, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had spoken of the need to distinguish between the “good” and “bad” Taliban.
The view in favour of holding talks has only strengthened since then.
Why is the shift in Taliban's stance?
The Taliban have been grappling with the emergence of the ISIS in Afghanistan.
The ISIS is in direct conflict with both the Taliban and the US-backed Afghan government.
However, the Taliban is keen to demonstrate to the Afghan people that it seriously wants to govern them.
How did the talks evolve?
In 2018, the administration of US President Donald Trump asked the State Department to explore the possibility of talks with the Taliban.
This signalled a major paradigm shift in American policy towards the Taliban.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the former American ambassador to Afghanistan, was appointed the special US envoy to initiate the peace process.
Reaching out to the Taliban, a framework peace deal was agreed “in principle” in January 2019.
The current talks are directed towards materialising this framework.
What is the significance?
At the close of these talks, both sides agreed to an “agreement in draft” on two of the most critical areas central to American interests-
a commitment by the Taliban to not allow anti-American activities on Afghan soil
a time-bound withdrawal of American troops
The US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad expressed his sense of achievement on Twitter.
The talks and the statement indicate a change in the US policy on the Taliban from an armed invasion to peaceful negotiations at present.
Moreover, the Taliban delegation for the talks was chaired by Mullah Baradar, a co-founder of the Islamist movement and one of its most senior leaders.
He was released by Pakistan last year after almost a decade of incarceration.
What are the unresolved concerns?
Afghan government - The Taliban have from the beginning been firm that they would not talk directly with the Afghan government.
The Taliban consider the Afghan government to be a US puppet.
However, with the current negotiations, a change in the Taliban’s attitude could perhaps be expected now.
With the upcoming talks, the two sides are expected to discuss the possibility of a complete ceasefire after the US troops' departure, definitively ending the war.
Freedom - During their government from 1996 to 2001, and in many of the areas that they controlled, the Taliban enforced a highly puritanical form of Islam.
They have banished women from public life, restricted their access to schools, and banned music and television.
After the Taliban's ouster from power, Afghanistan has taken steps towards providing to its people constitutional freedoms.
The government has created the conditions for an independent media and an increased role for women.
It is now widely feared that the return of the Taliban would destroy these hard-won achievements which are still in the evolving phase.
Despite these, a political arrangement with the Taliban is a price that the government is now willing to pay.
However, this is only on the assurance that Afghanistan will not be allowed to become a terrorist threat to the West again.
What does it mean for India?
Afghanistan is a strategic investment for India, and India has made significant contributions to the rebuilding of the country.
However, it has not been India's principle to differentiate between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ terrorists.
So in effect, India rules out direct negotiation with the Taliban.
India’s participation in the Moscow talks with Taliban last year was only in a ‘non-official capacity’.
Most likely, Taliban will have a major say in the government of Afghanistan at least for the foreseeable future.
But India’s strategic presence in Afghanistan stands on a much lower footing compared to that of Pakistan.
It was, notably, Pakistan's intelligence wing that in many ways created the Taliban, and which continues to influence its leaders.
So once the Americans withdraw fully and the Taliban take over the country in a direct or indirect capacity, India will have a tough time.
