IMD - Monsoon Forecast

Why in news?

The Indian Meteorological Department has recently released the monsoon forecast for this year.

What are the key findings?

• The country would experience a normal monsoon for the third successive year.
• South-west monsoon at 97% of the long period average (LPA) is expected.
• Long Period Average (LPA) is the average annual rainfall for the period 1951-2000.
• The LPA comes to about 89 cm of rain.
• Monsoon is considered normal if average rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the LPA.
• Anything less than 90% of the LPA is considered a deficient monsoon.

What does it imply?

• The forecast of a normal monsoon enhanced the economic outlook.
• For farmers especially, this has given fresh expectations.
• This is the third year in a row to look forward to a high output for a variety of crops.
• However, it is not to be forgotten that fiscal realities have come in the way of realising higher farm incomes.
• The Centre has been supportive of higher returns through the Minimum Support Price mechanism.
• Moreover, additional bonuses have been announced by States such as Madhya Pradesh for procurement.

What is the need for caution?

• Government efforts have mainly helped only rice and wheat.
• This trend has led to a skew towards these crops.
• This is especially worrying from a water management perspective.
• As the above crops are heavily dependent on groundwater.
• With a normal monsoon, another year of good cropping is expected.
• But unremunerative prices will depress public sentiment.
• So it is vital for the Centre to arrive at a policy.
• Farmers should be given constructive advice on the ideal cropping mix.
• They should be helped to get the cost-plus-50% margin that the Centre has promised them.

Why is water management crucial for India?

• Rainfall ranges from a few hundred millimetres or less in the northwest to more than a few thousand millimetres elsewhere.
• The long-term challenge for India is to make the most of the rainfall it receives.
• India notably uses more water to grow crops comparing to, say, China.
• Combined with distortions in procurement subsidies, water stress due to exorbitant use is inevitable.

What should be done?

• The Master Plan for Artificial Recharge to Ground Water drawn up by the Centre should be pursued scientifically.
• This is to help States (with the most water-stressed blocks) get adequate funds to build artificial recharge structures.
• Moreover, for farmers choosing to continue with wheat and rice, transfer of expertise is crucial.
• Also, provision of equipment that enables efficient utilisation of water is vital.
• A good monsoon raises agriculture’s contribution to GDP growth.
• So it is essential that the governments invest consistently to harvest the monsoon.

Source: The Hindu, Indian Express