The last date for filing claims and objections for Assam’s National Register of Citizens (NRC) has been extended by the Supreme Court by 15 days from December 15, 2018.
The outcome of the NRC exercise has implications for India’s ties with Bangladesh.
Why is Bangladesh significant for India?
According to the latest available Bangladesh government estimates of 2009, more than 500,000 Indians were working in Bangladesh.
More recently, Bangladesh was reported to be among the highest source of remittances to India, behind the UAE, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the U.K.
Many Indian citizens are securing employment opportunities in Bangladesh through MNCs, NGOs and trading activities.
Most of them are employed in advantageous jobs in Bangladesh while Bangladeshis in India are largely employed in low-paying jobs.
More importantly, it is to be noted that there are legal as well as illegal Indian immigrants in Bangladesh too.
What is the tussle?
The government maintains that the NRC is an administrative task overseen by the Supreme Court, and not a political one.
However, some members of the ruling party have been making hateful anti-migration and anti-Bangladeshi comments.
This reflects poorly on the prevalent positive relationship between Bangladesh and India.
Also, Indian PM has assured the Bangladesh government that those excluded from the NRC will not be deported.
But Bangladesh has so far been silent on the issue, terming it as an ‘internal matter of India’.
Notably, Bangladesh is already at the extremes in terms of use of resources and manpower to host Rohingya refugees.
So it would not be acceding to a request of taking back Bengali-speaking Muslims in case deportation is initiated.
How is India's 'Neighbourhood First' policy performing?
The ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy of the Government of India seems to be undergoing a transformation in the recent period.
Nepal - Nepal, once a time-tested ally of India, has tilted towards China.
This is particularly since the 2015 Nepal blockade barring the entry of fuel, medicine and other vital supplies.
Nepal now has been given access to four Chinese ports at Tianjin, Shenzhen, Lianyungang and Zhanjiang.
This is in addition to access to its dry (land) ports at Lanzhou, Lhasa and Xigatse, as well as roads to these facilities.
These seem to be ending India’s monopoly to Nepal's trading routes.
Bhutan - The India-Bhutan relationship has also been strained.
This is witnessed ever since India temporarily withdrew subsidies on cooking gas and kerosene in 2013, constraining bilateral ties.
The Doklam stand-off of 2017 reinforced Bhutan’s scepticism towards Chinese expansionist plans across the region.
Simultaneously, this landlocked kingdom has been underlining its aspiration to affirm its sovereignty.
E.g. it has stepped out of India’s diplomatic influence, as evidenced by its withdrawal from BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) motor vehicles agreement
Bangladesh - With China making inroads into South Asia and India’s backyard, Bangladesh has been the most trusted ally of India.
On the security front, it has cooperated in India’s crackdown on insurgents.
With close cooperation with Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), a number of training places and hideouts of these insurgents (in Bangladesh) has been reduced to almost zero.
Annual bilateral trade is set to cross the $9 billion mark, making it India’s biggest trading partner in South Asia.
In addition, Bangladesh has facilitated connectivity with the Northeast by allowing the use of Chittagong and Mongla ports.
However, the following issues remain unresolved, being irritants in the relationship -
the Teesta water-sharing issue
non-tariff barriers on Bangladeshi exports
border killings
Others - The India-China power play has also cast its shadow over Sri Lanka and the Maldives in the last few years.
What do these imply?
The NRC compilation exercise has sparked a debate around its political, economic and humanitarian consequences.
The issue threatens to disturb the equilibrium in India-Bangladesh ties.
Any deportation of those not in the NRC list is not only politically unwise but also risk inciting unrest across the region.
