Russian president, Vladimir Putin‘s visit to India for India-Russia 2+2 Summit must be utilized to reset the India-Russia relationship amidst a series of differences.
How has the relationship evolved over the years?
Historically - For the past 70 years since Independence, Russia have been a time-tested ally and major defence supplier for India.
During the cold war, the relationship was very strong and even gave rise to U.S. suspicions that India was an unofficial part of the Soviet camp.
Notably, this was despite New Delhi’s affirmations that it was a leading member of the “Non-Aligned Movement” (NAM).
India’s Shift - India has traditionally sought to maintain a balance between superpowers and refrained from joining groups for preserving its sovereignty.
But in recent years this position appears to have shifted in favour of finding new allies, with changing power structures and security concerns.
This change was amply in displayed when India actively pursued the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (involving US, India, Japan, and Australia).
Notably, this has been conceptualised as security alliance with a vision of ensuring freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific region (targeted at China).
Russia’s Shift - In parallel to these creeping changes, Russia’s interest towards Pakistan and China has increased and warmth with India decreased.
Russia-Pakistan relationship is on an upward trajectory, with Russia signalling support for Pakistan’s candidature to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
Joint military exercises between Russia and Pakistan held in 2017, is another major concern as Russia is a long-time trusted military partner for India.
What differing opinion has been a concern?
Difference of opinion over Af-Pak region
Differences over America’s Indo-Pacific strategy
Continuing conflict between the Kremlin and the West
Absence of a thriving commercial relationship between India and Russia-India-Russia annual trade in goods is stuck at about $10 billion
India’s closeness with the US and Russia’s embrace of China
What is expected at 21st annual India-Russia summit ?
During the summit, PM Modi and the Russian President will review the prospects of bilateral relations and will discuss ways to further strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.
Before the annual summit, India and Russia will also hold the first 2+2 dialogue to be held at the level of the foreign and defence ministers.
The agenda for the dialogue will cover political and defence issues of mutual interest.
There is speculation about a new 10-year defence pact between the two countries.
The two leaders are also expected to preside over the signing of an agreement on mutual logistical support for each other’s armed forces.
The two sides are also expected to focus on the situation in Afghanistan and the rising threat of terrorism including from groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
How does the US-Russia relation affect India?
The Cold war era dispute has been a cause of concern for India till today and the Biden administration recognises the importance of ending this permanent crisis in US-Russian relations.
The Biden administration, which is focused on winning the intensifying strategic competition with China, values a stable relationship with Russia.
There have been fears over the US sanctions on the purchase of S-400 missiles by India.
A less conflictual relationship between Washington and Moscow will be a huge relief for India.
Delhi hopes that Washington appreciates its assessment that Russian neutrality is critical in balancing China in the east.
