India's External Affairs: 2024

Ties

Challenges

Opportunities

US-Canada

• Biden’s unavailability for the Republic Day celebrations.
• Postponement of Quad summit
• Allegation of India’s role in assassination of Khalistani separatist in both USA and Canada.

• Both USA and India are invested heavily with each other.
• Indian PM has expressed India’s “commitment to the rule of law”.

Pakistan

• Constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir.
• India’s status quo of following doctrine of indifference.

• Election results of both nations could open avenues for restarting their relationship.

Bangladesh

• Election due in Bangladesh in 2024.
• Security imperatives as Bangladesh opposition is viewed with suspicion.

• Improving connectivity between its Northeast and Bangladesh.

China

• Continuing deadlock due to border standoff since 2020.

• Elections may change the diplomacy.

West Asia and
Global South

• Gaza conflict has tested India’s position.
• Global South did not take India’s initial support for Israel kindly.

• Balancing with Palestine to call for ceasefire in last UN vote.
• India’s success in negotiating a joint declaration at the G20 summit.

Russia

• War in Ukraine test India’s position.
• Pressure from the US has kept India from giving Moscow a free hand.
• Payment crisis.
• 2023 is the 2^nd year with no India-Russia annual summit at the level of leaders.
• Russia’s dependence on Beijing for its economic survival.

• Imports of Russian oil.
• Leaders’ summit is possible at BRICS meet in 2024.

West

• The free trade pacts with the UK and European partners are said to be at a critical stage.
• Elections are due in both and this shrinks the policy space and flexibility for negotiators.

• The dialogues with the US and EU on technology and trade, to remove the barriers for India to access high tech in AI, quantum computing, and cybersecurity.

Maldives

• Indian Out campaign by Maldives President.
• Maldives call for withdrew of Indian Military presence.

• Colombo Security Conclave for strengthening India’s position in Indian Ocean.

Afghanistan

• Afghanistan’s announcement of closing the Embassy of Afghanistan in Delhi.
• Removal of India’s embassy from Kabul after Taliban take over.

• India is engaging with the Taliban, a technical team has been posted at the embassy in Kabul.