Internal Climate Migration

What is the issue?

• There is presently an increased internal migration across the world due to political and economic instability.
• Beyond this, the internal migration due to climate change is potential of getting to be a major concern for nations.

What is the looming danger?

• Some of the slow onset climate events would be droughts, effects from sea level rise and water shortages.
• These may certainly drive many more to leave their homes and move to safer places.
• Such migration may be a choice in the initial stages.
• However, as the stress becomes more severe, the decision to move may be forced.
• E.g. people are compelled to leave their island nations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans with gradual rise in sea levels
• These climate exiles are an ongoing process.
• Notably, it would likely increase out-migration over time.

Which regions are vulnerable?

• A recent report by the World Bank on internal climate migration highlights the possible migration reality.
• In Latin America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa over 140 million people would be forced to move within borders by 2050.
• This would be as a result of slow onset climate events alone.
• In the worst-case scenario, about 40 million of these migrants would be in South Asia.
• This is the most populous of the regions studied, with a number of climate change effects anticipated.

How would South-Asia be affected?

• South Asia is characterised by rain-fed farmland in large parts of the region.
• Variability in the monsoons and warmer temperatures is sure to lead to crop failures.
• This will lead to migration from the Gangetic plains and from the rice-growing northeast of Bangladesh and the inundated coasts.
• The numbers on forced internal migration in South Asia could increase six-fold between 2020 and 2050.
• This will continue to rise beyond 2050 without appropriate climate action.
• But even with inclusive development and climate-friendly scenarios, tens of millions would still be forced to migrate.
• This normally makes people migrate to big cities.
• However, those along the coast such as Mumbai, Chennai, Chittagong and Dhaka will themselves be vulnerable.
• Storm surges and other effects from sea level rise make these coastal cities unfavourable.

What are the concerns?

• The poor would be the worst affected by these slow onset events.
• Most of them would migrate out of rural areas to nearby urban settlements such as cities and the peri-urban surroundings.
• Such “hotspots” of in and out migration would be stressed for natural resources, public services and livelihoods.
• In India, the areas between Chennai and Bengaluru could be the potential spots.
• In India, there are already signs of unplanned and frontier-led growth in peri-urban areas.
• Planning that ignores the ecosystem services provided by local natural resources generates further problems for the vulnerable.
• The implications of internal migrations will significantly affect development in these areas and the lives of vulnerable people.

What should be done?

• Policy - Understanding migration patterns, getting socioeconomic data on migration and appropriate planning are essential.
• Current climate modelling methods are not accurate at high resolutions for local decision-making.
• Policies to reduce GHG emissions are of utmost urgency.
• Cities - The peri-urban areas, expected to be hotspots, already have many problems.
• These include water shortage, waste management, nutritional deficiency, limited services and poor infrastructure.
• Thus, integrating internal migration with ongoing development planning is vital.
• Ecosystem - Ecosystems, part of the natural resources in peri-urban areas, ought to be protected as “special ecological zones”.
• This is crucial to ensure that as urban settlements expand, they don’t spoil the ecosystem services.
• Social - Ignoring issues of social justice and equity in adaptation can lead to serious governance failure.
• Skill building, job training and education and job opportunities for locals and migrants thus have to become a focal point.
• Rights for those who are forced to migrate would be fundamental in these preparations.

Source: The Hindu