Northern Ireland witnessed some of the messiest violence in the 20th Century.
With sustained peace having been restored for over 2 decades now, the Irish case presents a good model for Kashmir’s future.
What is the history of conflict in Ireland?
Independence - Ireland as a whole was a British colony from the Tudor conquest in the 17th century till the 1922 Anglo-Irish Treaty.
Under the treaty, the island of Ireland was divided into two territories namely “Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland”.
While former became an independent nation, the later was to remain an autonomous region within the U.K.
Underlying this divide was a clear demographic divide between the English colonisers and the Gaelic Natives (people of the Irish lineage).
English settlers were predominantly Protestants and were concentrated in Northern Ireland and the natives were predominantly Catholics.
Tensions - Within the Northern Ireland, Catholics of Irish dissent, were a big minority and accounted for about 40% of the population.
Due to various forms of political polarisation in the society, demographic tensions were ranging in the Northern Ireland in the 1980s.
Violent riots and clashes between the government forces and dissenters were common in those years, resulting in numerous deaths.
The dissenters were called Irish nationalists and argued for integration of the “Northern Ireland” with the “Republic of Ireland”.
Contrarily, pro-government forces were called unionists who wanted to remain within the U.K. administration.
How were the tensions resolved?
Eventually, sectarian politicians in Northern Ireland adopted the “greater autonomy” card over complete secession to negotiate with the U.K. authorities.
Finally, the “Good Friday Agreement” was reached in 1998 and while Northern Ireland remains a part of U.K. still, peace was restored, which still holds good.
Key to the peace process was the emergence of honest but clever brokers who understood the contradictions of the difficult process.
This crafty diplomacy piloted by British PM Tony Blair’s government went alongside strong grievances redressing mechanisms of the affected citizenry.
How does Kashmir’s case read against Northern Ireland’s?
Similarities - Kashmiri conflict, like Northern Ireland’s, is also rooted in ethno-religious context and both have seen numerous violent episodes.
In Kashmir’s case, “Kashmiri Pundits” (Hindus) are pitted against “Islamic Extremists”, much like the Catholic - Protestant divide in Northern Ireland.
Further, it was during strongly rooted cultural right wing regimes that sectarian tensions got fuelled more in these regions.
Much like the nationalists in Ireland, the Hurriyat leadership in India has been towing a secessionist line all along.
Future - While Northern Ireland saw the emergence of witty negotiators who were trusted by both sides, Kashmiri conflict awaits them.
But an international negotiator is likely to be an anathema to any Indian government for the fear of internationalising the issue.
In this context, there is a need for the emergence of a local hand that is trusted by all including the hardliner Hurriyat leadership.
While the Hurriyat demand is currently “independent Kashmir”, talks might help in mellowing down the tenor to something like greater autonomy.
What is the way ahead?
A close look at separatist movements shows that the problem is lesser about territorial control and more about a fight for self respect.
Interlocutors and diplomats piloting settlements should go into this aspect in detail if they are to address the roots of the problem.
In Kashmir’s case, both Muslims and Hindus has been emotionally brutalised due to years of political polarisation and suppression.
Pakistan might want to play spoiler in any Indian effort to address the Kashmir issue, and only a strongly committed diplomacy can overcome this.
While the masses in Northern Ireland continue to display polarised loyalties, violence has disappeared and expressions have taken softer conducive modes.
