Israel got itself involved in the Syrian war in order to contain increasing Iranian influence in Syria.
But the tide seems to be against it and its option is limited at present.
How has the Israel - Syria hostility evolved over the years?
In the 1967 war, Israel captured the strategic “Golan Heights” on the Israeli-Syria border from Syria and continues to occupy the region even now.
In the 1980s, Syria intervened in Lebanon and helped militants like Hezbollah who were resisting Israeli occupation of Lebanon.
While Syria and Israel do not have formal diplomatic ties, they’ve not had a direct confrontation for more than 50 years now.
Additionally, despite the hostility towards the current longstanding Assad regime, Israel’s border with Syria has been very calm for years.
When the crisis broke in Syria in 2011, Israel was a fence sitter as it didn’t want to displace the stable secular dictatorship of Assad.
Notably, this was more because the possible replacement was an uncertain bunch of militant religionists.
But as the Syrian civil war evolved into a regional conflict over the years, and Israel’s strategic calculations seem to have changed too.
What forced Israel’s intervention into the Syrian war?
The Syrian war is very complex and multiple players have aligned with each-other for strategic reasons even if their end goals were non-compatible.
As the Syrian regime’s position weakened, Iran sent in trained Shia militants from various counties to fight for saving the regime.
Notable among them is Hezbollah, which is a Lebanese Shia militia that is backed by Iran, which sent thousands of its troopers to fight in Syria.
Besides the government army, these militias fought the war on the ground on behalf of the regime, and also received technical support from Iran.
The growing role of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria alarmed Israel, as Hezbollah and Israel have had multiple direct confrontations in the past.
Notably, it was Hezbollah’s guerrilla resistance that forced the Israel withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 after 18 years of occupation.
Also, Israel’s 2006 bombardment on Hezbollah’s weapons infrastructure in Lebanon and the subsequent month offensive failed in its stated objectives.
Notably, Hezbollah now has a heavy military presence along southern Lebanon which is across Israel’s northern border.
What was the Israeli strategy?
To counter the Iranian activities, Israel had adopted a two-pronged strategy.
1st strategy - The plan was to deter Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies from taking control of its Golan border region (Israel – Syria border).
Israel hence decided to strengthen anti-regime rebels in southern Syria, which is closer to the Golan border.
While initially, Israel offered mere medical aid and humanitarian assistance to the rebels, it has lately acquired military and logistical dimensions.
Tel Aviv is said to be offering support to seven different rebel groups in the region, that also includes a faction of the US-backed Free Syrian Army.
Besides providing money, weapons and intelligence, Israel also supported the advances by these groups on the ground with air cover.
Notably, one such aerial mission saw Israel bombing regime positions in as the local rebel groups backed by it came under heavy attacks from the regime.
2nd strategy – For its own strategic reasons, Russia intervened directly in the Syrian war in 2015 to support the regime.
As this seems to be pitting Israeli backed forces in conflict with Russian endeavours, Israel commenced active war diplomacy with Russia.
This ultimately helped Israel gain Russia’s tacit acceptance to not interfere in Israeli offensive against Hezbollah positions within Syria.
Hence, despite Russia controlling most of Syria’s airspace since 2015, Israel retained the freedom to aerially strike Hezbollah positions at will.
Notably, in 2017 alone Israel claims to have struck suspected weapons shipments to Hezbollah around 100 times.
How successful was the intervention?
It wasn’t regime change but the growing Iranian influence in Syria that concerned Israel, for which it was supporting rebel elements.
Israel hoped that Russian intervention on the Syrian regime’s behalf would reduce its dependence on Iran.
But Russia remained ambiguous, and neither stopped Israeli assault on Hezbollah nor stopped the expansion of Iranian footprint in Syria.
Hence, even as the government is recovering its control back, the regime-friendly Iranian presence is only growing in Syria.
The network of rebels, who are being backed by Israel are currently losing ground rapidly and international support is also correspondingly dwindling.
While the US was rock solid behind these rebel groups in the initial years, it has wanted to withdraw since Trump administration took over.
Late last year, the regime regained a foothold near the Israeli border by washing out the rebels in some areas, which has also spooked Israel.
Also, recently, Israel carried out an aerial assault in Syria against “Iranian targets”, and an Israeli jet was subsequently downed by Syrian fire.
On the whole, the entire episode looks like a comprehensive failure.
How does the future look?
Israel has strengthened its bombing campaign in Syria this month and has also issued a sternly warned Iran of dire consequences.
But beyond rhetoric, Israel’s capacity to shape reality in Syria is limited, as Iran’s clout has been established strongly over the war years.
Hezbollah has also been emboldened and looks too strong to be eliminated by mere areal rides, at a time when full-scale intervention is not an option.
As the regime gains further strength, it will begin its onslaught on the Israeli backed rebels in the south, which will make things murkier for Tel Aviv.
