Recently, Lebanon’s PM ‘Saad Hariri’, surprisingly announced his resignation when he was on a tour to Saudi Arabia.
This could potentially plunge the country into political chaos and bring back the Sunni-Shia tensions to the fore.
How is Lebanon’s political set-up constituted?
Lebanon has many religions and sects within its borders and has seen many civil wars since its formation.
After the end of the 15 years war in 1990, it evolved a complex power sharing arrangement to accommodate all major groups.
Accordingly, the Presidency was reserved for a ‘Maronite christian’, the Prime Minister-ship for a ‘Sunni Muslim’ and the parliamentary speaker’s post for a ‘Shia Muslim’.
Lebanon has also been a checker-board for geo-political games between Iran & Saudi Arabia - each operating through their respective proxies.
Notably, Hezbollah, a shia’ite pro-Iranian group is very active in the country and controls swathes of territory.
How did the current turn of events unfold?
Mr. Hariri, is a Sunni Muslim with close business and political ties with Saudi Arabia.
He had formed a coalition with Hezbollah’s political wing (which has Iran’s support) to form the government about a year ago.
Since then, Saudis had grown increasingly impatient with Mr. Hariri’s soft approach towards Hezbollah’s militant activities.
Notably, Hezbollah was involved in the Syrian civil war on behalf of President Bashar al-Assad, another Saudi rival.
In this backdrop, Mr. Hariri announced his resignation on from Riyadh (Saudi) and blamed Hezbollah and Iran for his decision.
Surprisingly, more than a week later he is yet to return to Lebanon and complete the formalities of the resignation.
His continued absence has triggered speculation that he was forced by the Saudis to resign and is being held in Riyadh against his will.
How is the anti-Hezbollah alliance taking shape?
Israel saw Hezbollah as a treat to its northern border and attacked Lebanon in 2006 to destroying Hezbollah, but failed.
Since then, Hezbollah has amassed weapons from Iran and has got battlefield training in the Syrian civil war.
Its political arm has also successfully developed enormous popular influence in Lebanon.
Saudi Arabia is naturally concerned about this growing military and political clout of an Iranian proxy.
Notably, U.S. President Trump has backed Saudi policies in Lebanon and Riyadh also has the silent support of Israel.
How does the future look?
Possible War - Saudis would like to see another Sunni leader who takes a confrontational view of Hezbollah to reign Lebanon.
It has also asked its citizens to leave Lebanon, signalling potential military action.
Given its capabilities and history of resistance, Hezbollah may retaliate if its core interests come under attack.
Hope - While the memories of the brutal 1975-90 civil war are still fresh, another civil war would benefit nobody within Lebanon.
Hezbollah should threfore to address the concerns of its coalition partners and work to preserve the delicate political balance.
Mr. Hariri should also return home immediately and explain clearly, the reasons for his surprise resignation.
