The Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has been trying to initiate a peace process with sections of the Taliban.
This initiative runs the inherent risk of intensifying divisions in the country’s ruling coalition.
Why is the timing for offering peace important?
One of the most difficult moments in any war is identifying the perfect timing for making a bid for peace.
If bid from a weak position, it would imply a tacit defeat.
Also, if bid from a strong position, it would mean settling for a compromise when a comprehensive victory was very much in the offering.
It hence needs to be appropriately timed in order to help in accelerating a positive shift in the structure of the conflict.
While Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has made a peace offer to the Taliban, there is no clarity on where this might lead to.
What is the present ground situation?
Rising Taliban - Taliban’s clout has steadily expanded in recent years and it is now said to be prominent in nearly 50% of the Afghanistan’s territory.
The Taliban, with its sanctuaries in Pakistan, has been able to mount spectacular terror attacks in Kabul and elsewhere at ease.
Mr. Ghani had vowed to exterminate Taliban only a few months ago, in the aftermath of a string of massive attacks within high security zones.
Hence, the current offer for unconditional talks was a surprise and many observers are also sceptical as they believe it is a tactical acceptance of defeat.
Notably, Taliban persists in its refusal to engage the government in Kabul, which it considers illegitimate and prefers to negotiate directly with the U.S.
U.S. Position - U.S. is a major player in the war against Taliban and has been steadfast in preventing a military victory of Taliban over the Afghan regime.
It has also been mounting pressure on Pakistan to crack down on elements within Pakistan that are contributing to destabilising Afghanistan.
Taliban wants a complete U.S. withdrawal, as U.S. presence is its biggest impediment to recapture power, but the U.S. only recently increased its troops.
Afghani government - Mr. Ghani’s own position within Kabul’s ruling coalition at the national and provincial governments is steadily waning.
Many also worry that any significant concessions to the Taliban will further intensify the divisions within the ruling coalition and usher in instability.
What are the contours of the peace offer made?
Mr. Ghani unveiled a peace in Kabul last week, which without a speck of doubt is the most comprehensive and generous offer made since war began in 2001.
Provisions - It includes a ceasefire, release of prisoners, recognising the Taliban as a legitimate political force, and a review of the constitution.
By offering unconditional talks, Kabul seems to be suggesting that it is willing to negotiate a transition to a new political order to replace the current one.
The offer is a clear recognition of Taliban’s renewed relevance for the political future of Afghanistan, which wasn’t accorded thus far.
Considerations - The war in Afghanistan, now in its 17th year, doesn’t seem winnable by either side despite large military interventions.
As the U.S. would have to eventually pull out, it is only prudent for Kabul to start negotiating with the Taliban to end the stalemate and ensure stability.
Notably, the Pakistani government too has welcomed Ghani’s peace offer and has promised “wholehearted support” to the peace process.
