Newfound Stability in Nepal and India’s Options

What is the issue?

• A stable government has emerged in Nepal after decades of uncertainty, with the lefist coalition raising to power with a clear majority.
• As the new dispensation takes charge of Nepal’s progress, India needs to work on rectifying its equation with Nepal, which is currently strained.

What precipitated the strain in the Indo-Nepal relations?

• Considering the shared culture, social and economic linkages across the open border, Indo-Nepal friendship and mutual cooperation is only natural.
• But, New Delhi seems to have constantly under-estimated Kathmandu’s fierce sense of self, partly due to its global preoccupations.
• Conseqently, various Indian efforts to influence Nepal’s politics saw severe backlashes in the recent years, to the extent of generating mutual animosity.   
• Indian Interventionism - India became progressively intrusive in Nepal, as internal crisis intensified there during and after the Maoist insurgency.
• Also, the hill-plain polarisation escalated during the constitution-writing, with plains based Madeshi groups becoming more vocal due to tacit Indian backing.  
• India seemed to treat Nepal as a mere extension of its own territory, with a sense of entitlement, exceptionalism and a big brotherly arrogance.
• Notably, along with the multiple domestic factors, a key reason for prolonged political instability in Nepal has been India’s overt and covert actions.
• Chinese Foray - India is understandably apprehensive as the Chinese geo-economic juggernaut has been trying to infiltrate into Nepal.
• Notably, Qinghai-Tibet Railway is expected to reach Nepal’s northern border  by 2020, and is expected to be a game-changer for the region.

How is the Mr. Oli’s regime positioned vis-a-vis India?

• As PM K.P.Sharma Oli’s government has a comfortable majority in the parliament, the regime is expected to last its full term unlike previous regimes.
• This provides for the opening of a new chapeter in the Indo-Nepal ties, although the regime has largely shared a bad equation with India previously.
• Notably, the bitterness was mainly on the account of the prolonged blockade of the southern border, when Mr.Oli was PM the previous time. 
• The perception that India was tacitly supporting the blockaders, saw Mr. Oli resorting to China for esnsuring essential supplies.
• Hence, it needs to be recognized there is a need for India to course correct and restrain from coercive intrusive actions to overcome the past bitterness.
• Mr. Oli has been exhibiting pragmatic political traits, which provides for ample avenues for India to rebuild lost love, by promising a hands-free aproach.
• In this context, the Modi government has been a swift mover and Foreign Minister Susma Swaraj has already visited the new dispensation.
• Notably, economies progress of the eastern UP and northern Bihar which consititute some of the poorest parts in India are directly tied to Nepal.

What are the priority issues for Nepal’s new government?

• Constitutional Issues - Singular majority of Mr. Oli will facilitate the easy implementing the Constitution, which has been partly contentious.
• Hence, the uncertainty of the last two decades seems to be approaching its end, as Nepal’s becomes a federal and secular republic, with a 3 tier setup.  
• But there is confusion on the powers of various tiers, and that of the Supreme Court, which needs to be sorted out going ahead.
• The transitional years, has left the police, bureaucracy and judiciary politicised, and reversing this will be a challenge.
• The central socio-political task would be to establish inclusive governance by giving Madhesi and Janajathi people a sense of state ownership.

• Economy - Private sector cartels that control the economy to corruption that has seeped to the village terraces are other aspects that needs rectification.
• Raising employment through tourism, industry, agroforestry and agriculture, ensuring energy self-sufficiency through hydro projects are economically vital.
• Winning investor confidence by ensuring rule of law in Nepal is also a primary challenge to rebuild businesses locally.
• Other Issues - The ongoing truth and reconciliation process has been touted by some as a sham exercise to pardon wartime (maoist) atrocities.
• With Nepal having been recently elected to the UN Human Rights Council, there is opportunity to raise Nepal’s international profile.
• Considering the constitutional safeguards and that the hardliners representing Hindutva ideology have been completely routed is a positive in this regard.
• Post-earthquake reconstruction, has become increasingly scandalous due to allegations of corruption, which needs to be rectified. 
• On the foreign policy front, balancing India and China would be crucial.

What are the other internal political considerations?

• Mr. Oli’s primary preoccupation will be managing the government’s relationship with the opposition Nationalist Congress and the Madesh parties.
• Notably, a number of statues under the framework of the new constitution remains to be drafted, which will certainly require a larger consensus.  
• Also,  Mr Oli’s alliance partner Mr. Prachanda is another constraint in the larger scheme of things whose unwavering support is not a granted one.
• Despite being a junior partner, Mr. Prachanda has been nurturing Prime Ministerial ambitions which might derail the stable mandate.
• While the two parties are indeed preparing a permanent unification document currently, it is important to ensure that parallel power centers don’t arise.

Source: The Hindu