With increasing diplomatic tensions in the international arena, a new cold war seems likely with the emergence 3 distinct poles - U.S., China and Russia.
Considering its historic role as a level headed neutral power, it is prudent for India to reinvent the principle of “Non-Alignment” to suit the current scenario.
What are the indications of the Neo-Cold war?
USA - The U.S. in its foreign policy doctrine published in 2017 has explicitly identified both China and Russia as adversaries.
Notably, in the face of an assertive China and Russia, the U.S. does indeed seem desperately resorting to ultra-nationalism under President Mr. Trump.
The “axis of evil” (or the countires that the U.S. suspects of sponsoring terrorism) has also emerged once again under Iran’s leadership.
Russian - President Mr. Putin announced that Russia has invincible doomsday machines like an underwater drone armed with a nuclear warheads.
Additionally, Russia has boasted the procession of weaponery powerful enough to sweep away coastal facilities, aircraft carriers.
Russia is also said to be developing hypersonic vehicles (high speed) that are impossible to intercept as it flies in a cloud of plasma “like a meteorite”.
China - Propelled by massive economic growth in recent decades, China has now announced its emergence a power block in the international politics.
It has been becoming increasingly vocal in a multitude of global issues and has upended its territorial claims in the South China Sea.
China massive infrastructure program “Belt and Road Initiative” has also seen it bankrolling many countires, which has greatly enhanced its clout.
Signficantly - This time it is a three-cornered Cold War, without any corner having committed countries to act together as military allies.
Potential allies are hedging currently, as there seems to be no clear agenda for any of these powers to protect the interests of the weaker countries.
What has NAM evolved over the years?
Profile - “Non Aligned Movement” was envisioned as a platform for those who didn’t want to be dictated by the then two superpowers - USSR and USA.
It held its first ministerial in Belgrade (erstwhile Yugoslavia) in 1961 and complete independence of members in their foreign policy was ingrained.
Notably, beyond merely asserting independent soverign pursuits, NAM also actively worked to diffuse tensions between the warring cold war blocks.
Diversity - The block was a big diverse one with 120 countries with very different cultures, economic parameters and human development indices.
India was one of NAM’s key leaders and ensured that it remained ideologically netural by balancing both leftist (Cuba) and rightist (Signapore) countires.
India helped in retaining Egypt in NAM by curtailing the wrath of the rest of the Arab world in 1979, and also worked to keep the group politically revevant.
Current Status - As the cold war ended, there were proposals for winding up NAM in its Ghana Ministerial in 1991, as the purpose has lapsed.
But these proposals were nixed as India argued that the essence of NAM was freedom of thought and action, which was beyond mere bloc congregations.
Although greated diminissed, NAM continue to be relevant today as a signficant power block in the international forums like the UN.
What are recent NAM developments concerning India?
NAM 2.0 - There were calls for rejiging the non-alignment concept in 2012 to suit the emerging current realities of an emerging and assertive China.
The call was for India to take the lead in strengthening the partnerships within NAM and seting new standards for power politics in the international arena.
While the ideas rooted in humanistic values were noble, there were structural challenges for India in imagining the proposed alternative universality.
Also, coming in the backdrop of India’s growing strategic partnership with the U.S. and tensions with China, there was little incentive for India to go neutral.
Redundance - The Modi government has perceived NAM as a mere remanant of the Neruvian era, that lacks any significance currently.
In the mesh of other developmental priorities involving economy, security, neighbourhood and the diaspora issues, NAM is largely forgotten.
India’s is presently advancing a transactional foreign policy, which gives little scope for leading a diverse and largely poor bloc like NAM.
How does the future look?
As a close defence partner of the U.S. and a member of the “Quadrilateral” (India, U.S, Australia, Japan), India is right in the U.S. camp.
Doklam and the Maldives have shown that China is in no mood for a compromise and has been explicitly enhancing its defence budgets.
Given the context, strengthening partnership of near equals like IBSA (India, Brazil and South Africa) could be considered as a hedge to guard soverignity.
These groups could be knit together with the objective of dealing with concensus issues like - climate change, terrorism and protectionism.
While it is inevitable that most countires will have links with the dominant trio (U.S., China and Russia), intertwining alliances will guarantee independence foreign policy pursits of all.
Hence, it is important for India to not get subordinated into one of the emerging poles and rather work to proliferate multiple worldwide alliances.
