February 24 marks one year since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine.
What is the history of conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
Annexation of Crimea- Ukraine was one of the republics within the USSR during the cold war days, and has remained a strong ally of Russia till 2013.
While it was planning to sign an association agreement with the European Union in 2013, Russia subsequently annexed “Crimea” (Russian speaking province in Ukraine).
Naval skirmish over the Sea of Azov - After Crimea’s annexation in 2014, Russia gained control over both sides of the Kerch strait.
Later, the Ukrainian vessels attempt to travel from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov was denied by the Russian coast guard.
Russian backed rebels- Russia has been criticised for its involvement in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine.
There, Russian-backed separatists have been fighting with Ukrainian troops.
Other conflict - Belarus, a Russian ally was blamed for the migration crisis in the EU’s Polish border.
What are the consequences of the war?
Socio-economic concerns
Millions of people fleeing – According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the war has led to the second-largest displacement crisis in the world.
Poverty – 40% of the Ukraine’s population is now dependent on humanitarian aid.
Recession - According to the World Bank, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 35% in 2022.
Billions for Ukrainian military – Since the beginning of the invasion, Ukraine has received billions in military, humanitarian, and financial aid, the US tops the list of donor countries.
The EU and its member states have mobilized over €50 billion, with Germany being one of the largest arms suppliers to Ukraine.
In addition, NATO has increased its military presence on its eastern flank.
Bucha Massacre – Ukrainian President accused Russian troops of committing the most terrible war crimes since World War II in Bucha, Ukraine.
Resilience in Russia – The situation in Russia is less critical than expected, as the economy has not suffered as much in comparison.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts minimal growth of 0.3% this year.
Environmental Concerns
Damages - The conflict has seen many damages with incidents involving nuclear power plants, energy infrastructure, mines and industrial sites.
Emissions- Emission from the conflict was estimated to be around 33 million (mn) tonnes of CO2 and 23 mn tonnes of CO2 from fires.
To know more about Environmental concerns, Click Here
What is the position of India?
The UN and its bodies have voted on resolutions pertaining to the Russia-Ukraine war at least 39 times in the last year.
India, which has maintained a diplomatic balancing act and has walked the tightrope between US-led West and Russia, has abstained on most occasions.
India’s voting shows a nuanced and calibrated stance adopted by Delhi in the past one year.
India stated it is deeply disturbed by the war, but it did not name Russia at all.
India called for cessation of violence and hostilities and flagged its concern about Indian nationals.
India called for respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, and respect for UN charter and international law.
India advocated diplomacy and advocated dialogue and diplomacy will be the path forward.
What is the way forward?
With a year of geopolitical turmoil due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, India as the chair of G-20, will face the challenge of negotiating a declaration while balancing between Russia and the West.
One of the ways it will look to address the Russia-Ukraine war will be to talk about the adverse impact of the war in terms of energy and food security.
The framing of the argument is expected to be on the humanitarian concerns of the war.
