A forecast of a below average monsoon in 2019 is a cause for worry.
It is crucial now that administrations at all levels draw up plans to address heat stress and possible water scarcity.
What is the weather scenario?
Last year (2018) was marked by erratic rainfall that flooded Kerala and crippled agriculture in eastern and western States.
Recent forecasts suggest the possibility of an El Nino, often associated with drought conditions.
Nevertheless, this must be considered along with other factors that seem to weaken the El Nino link.
These include a dipole weather phenomenon in the Indian Ocean.
Given these, things may become much clearer when the India Meteorological Department issues its forecast.
However, error margins and the erratic nature of rainfall in different regions make any predictions uncertain.
E.g. last year, the realisation of rainfall was 91% of the long-term average, while the prediction was for 97%
If the summer monsoon turns out to be deficient, it will add to the heat stress concerns, and pressures on rural employment and the economy as a whole.
What are the precautionary measures?
The key elements of protection in a heat wave are avoiding exposure during the hottest part of the day around noon.
Vulnerable sections of the population, especially the senior citizens, need special focus.
Staying adequately hydrated, wearing suitable clothing including headgear, and creating shade in public places are some precautions.
These kinds of messages and weather alerts should be disseminated through television, mobile phones and social media platforms.
What lies ahead?
Given the elections time, it is crucial that administrators do not ignore the public health risk of heat waves.
The State administrations should be prepared for the likelihood of a heat spike, particularly during April and May.
Official agencies and NGOs should start the groundwork as per the National Disaster Management Authority's guidelines.
Urban local bodies in particular have a responsibility to care for the large number of vulnerable city dwellers.
Yet, only few cities have drawn up proper heat action plans to respond to extreme weather or made them public.
India is looking at another uncertain monsoon, increasingly when the neglected potential of decentralised water-harvesting is realised.
It is more than a decade since the National Commission on Farmers suggested the wider adoption of both rainwater harvesting and aquifer recharge.
It is time to take such measures that will help communities achieve resilience.
These are essential to prevent loss of life and extreme distress to communities.
