South Asian relations are facing tough time due to India-Pakistan rivalry, China-Pakistan proximity and India-China hostility.
A paradigm shift in South Asia’s regional integration strategy is required to address such issues.
How is India's neighbourhood at present?
Politics and religion aside, across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh (IPB) there are common socio-cultural bonds.
People-to-people connectivity remains positive.
The remaining five i.e. Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan are paying the price of regional disintegration.
This is possibly caused by unresolved puzzles having roots in the China-IPB (CIPB) axis.
There are cross-border barriers and lack of transport facilitation among IPB.
This is leading to freight movement taking place along expensive routes, escalating the investment cost.
The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) has a sluggish progress in infrastructural development.
Pakistan-Bangladesh relations and the India-China tug of war over Bangladesh are increasing in recent times.
What is the significance of IPB?
IPB account for approximately 95% of South Asia’s GDP and population.
Along with China, they account for 18.5% of global GDP and 41% of global population.
South Asia’s intra-regional trade, currently 5% of total trade, can grow to $80 billion from the current $28 billion, huge share being within IPB.
Pakistan and India have potential trade capacity of $20 billion compared to the current $3 billion.
If IPB can have a strategic partnership factoring China, the remaining five can effortlessly fit into positive regionalism with a win-win situation for all.
What are the challenges before IPB?
The supply-demand gap of power in IPB is estimated to be around 18,000 MW.
Besides, by 2050, China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will also experience water shortages.
India and China are leading globally in terms of Internet and smartphone users.
But Internet penetration for these four countries is below 55%, indicating the untapped potential.
IPB fails to attract sufficient tourists due to poor civil aviation connectivity, complex regulations and lack of visa liberalisation procedures.
Movement of trucks across the international frontier is limited by absence of cross-border agreements between India and Bangladesh, and India and Pakistan.
Rail connectivity is restricted due to technical problems of different gauges, track structures, signalling and so forth.
What measures need to be taken?
Multilateral Co-operations - The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is being developed as a bilateral initiative.
However, if Indian sensitivities can be addressed, it can be a multilateral project.
Combined efforts of BCIM, CPEC and the proposed China-Nepal-India (CNI) Economic Corridor under BRI, can capitalise on regional economic potential.
Infra Projects - Synergetic integration of the economic corridors with other BRI projects can accelerate inward investment into IPB.
Developing transport, logistics services and bureaucratic procedures between India-Bangladesh are essential.
This can contribute to the cross border trade growth between the two by 300%.
Renewable Energy - To unravel the full potential, energy treaties based on renewable sources have become imperative.
Greater electricity generation and utilisation of domestic energy endowments along with connectivity are significant to capitalise on the regional energy potential.
Water sharing - The three largest trans-boundary river basins, Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra, are all within CIPB.
China has expressed interest to pursue water- sharing treaties.
IPB could thus come together in a collaborative framework to boost the livelihoods of millions across the region.
Digital transformation - Digital connectivity can act as the gateway to a holistic transformation of the region via the CIPB conduit.
If these opportunities are tapped, it would enhance mobility of both tourists and students.
Thus a strategic collaboration, looking beyond historical animosity and misgivings, can unlock a new era of regionalism whose benefits far outweigh negatives.
