Rising Temperatures in North India before Winter End

What is the issue?

The plains over North India reported a sharp shift in temperatures (rising) in mid-February.
This has triggered apprehensions that the cold season is ending soon and the summers are going to start early. Here is a look at the geographical factors.

How has the weather over North India been in 2021?

The region experienced continuous cold conditions all through January and the beginning of February 2021.
Cold conditions dominated both the plains and hilly regions in North and Northwest India this season.
The average monthly minimum temperature recorded over the country in January remained the warmest in 62 years.
However, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Chandigarh and Jammu and Kashmir experienced prolonged severe cold conditions.
The national capital and neighbouring areas also reported sporadic rainfall in the first week of January.
However unlike the winter of 2020, not many cold day conditions were recorded during this season.
In January, there were fewer and feeble western disturbances across lower latitudes.
The effects of western disturbances were mostly limited to hilly regions in January.

Why is the sudden rise in temperatures?

In the absence of cold wave and cold day conditions over the plains of north India, temperatures began to soar.
Delhi, Dehradun and many locations in both the plains and the hills recorded significantly above normal day temperatures for this time of the year.
On February 11, New Delhi recorded 30.4 degrees Celsius, which was 7.7 degrees above normal.
The cold waves are prevented from reaching the northern parts of India by -
1. the dominance of the prevailing easterly waves
2. presence of multiple weather systems over Central India
It is because of these that temperatures have seen a sharp rise.
The temperature departures notably ranged between 5 to 7 degrees from normal.

How will these weather systems affect the cold conditions?

There is the presence of multiple weather systems in Central India.
Their confluence with moist easterly winds is expected over Central India for few days.
With this, thunderstorm is forecast over this region for some days.
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh along with parts of Vidarbha, Marathwada, South Interior Karnataka, Jharkhand and Odisha will experience light intensity rainfall accompanied by lightning.
Some parts of Maharashtra could see hailstorm for two to three days.
As a result, no significant cold conditions would prevail over the country, except Jammu and Kashmir during this period.

Is the winter season over then?

India Meteorological Department (IMD) identifies January and February as winter months over India.
The temperatures would remain on the higher side till February 20, 2021. But, the winter season is not over yet.
A fresh western disturbance is expected to cross extreme north India on February 20.
This system will bring rainfall or snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir.
Once it passes, there is likely to be a marginal drop of around 2 to 3 degrees over Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh areas starting February 22 onwards.
It would not be a very cold spell, but would be a respite from the present warm conditions.

What is the forecast for the coming months?

With the winter season nearing its end for this year, the seasonal transition is expected to commence soon.
With that, a gradual rise in minimum temperatures by 2 to 4 degree Celsius over North and Northwest India is expected after February 25.
The day temperatures, too, shall soar in the coming days and remain between 22 to 30 degrees, except over Jammu and Kashmir, Shimla and places of higher altitudes.

Source: The Indian Express