The recent stand-off between Russia and Ukraine has again captured headlines in the international news media.
The current geopolitical situation appears to be complex due to the indirect involvement of multiple stakeholders, including the US, Turkey and the NATO.
What is the current tensions on?
Increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia can be viewed as a continuation of the unresolved conflict of 2014.
Since then, the ‘illegal annexation of Crimea’ has been an issue.
Russia has been criticised for its involvement in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine.
There, Russian-backed separatists have been fighting with Ukrainian troops.
Recently, Moscow has allegedly deployed thousands of troops as well as tanks and artillery near Ukraine’s eastern border.
It has also mobilised troops in the annexed Black Sea region of Crimea.
This has sent shock waves in Ukraine, forcing it to appeal to the U.S. and NATO for an intervention, if needed.
What is the level of support for Ukraine?
NATO - Dealing with Russia, a powerful and unpredictable neighbour, forces Ukraine to rely on NATO/U.S. military support.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed dissatisfaction at Russia’s present considerable military build-up.
He underlined that NATO would continue to provide significant political and practical support to Ukraine.
The question though is how far the NATO alliance can go in its support, given that Ukraine has not yet obtained membership.
In June 2020, NATO recognised Ukraine as an Enhanced Opportunities Partner, along with Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan, and Sweden.
The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also used the current tension as an opportunity to push for NATO membership.
U.S. - The U.S., under Biden administration, has taken a more resolute stance towards this conflict.
Unlike his predecessors, U.S. President Joe Biden seems to be less apprehensive about provoking Russia.
He is ready to support militarily for the ‘independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine’, if need arises.
Turkey - Notably, Turkey also seems to stand by Ukraine amidst the current tensions with Russia.
Notably, Turkey has not acted in synchrony with Russia during several conflicts, e.g., in Syria, Libya, and, most recently, in Nagorno-Karabakh.
What is a key concern in the conflict?
The cornerstone of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is insufficient communication.
This applies especially on the part of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
Russia’s tactical decisions towards Ukraine comes with many unanswered questions.
This creates room for misinterpretations and exaggerations on the part of Ukraine and its western supporters.
What is Russia’s possible rationale?
From the Russian perspective, the current ‘military build-up’ can be viewed as another round of display of a powerful and capable Russia.
Russian President Vladmir Putin possesses enough diplomatic (and pragmatic) skills not to indulge in yet another geopolitical endeavour.
As, this might entail serious repercussions from the international community.
What is the way forward?
Both countries do need support from the global community, but not in a military form.
All the stakeholders in the ongoing crisis should focus on establishing a constructive dialogue among themselves.
The only way forward is to seek a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
There is thus a need for a platform (similarly to the Minsk Agreements).
This should facilitate negotiation, mutual consensus and possible compromises, as well as engagement with mediators.
