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Russia’s Priorities in Syria

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June 13, 2018

What is the issue?

  • As the civil war winds down, the once overlapping interests of Moscow and Tehran are disentangling.
  • Russia now faces a big dilemma in West Asia on defending its allies.

How did the Syrian Conflict pan out?

  • President Vladimir Putin decided to send Russian troops to Syria in September 2015, at a time when the Assad regime in Syria was on the brink of collapse.
  • The Islamic State (IS) had then already declared Raqqah in eastern Syria as its de facto capital and had a formidable ground force.
  • Other rebels (US allies) had captured Damascus suburbs, and parts of Aleppo,    Ghouta, Idlib province and southern towns like Daraa and Quneitra.
  • Several rebel factions were breathing down on Damascus and the Mediterranean coastal belt, the last stronghold of the regime.
  • But presently, after 3 years of war, the Mr. Assad is safe and his regime has recaptured most of the territories it lost in the early days of the war.
  • This turnaround owes it greatly to the coordinated efforts of Russia, Iran and the Assad regime and various Iranian proxies.
  • Supported by Russian air power, Iran backed Hezbollah fought alongside the Syrian Army on the ground against rebels and jihadists.

What were the differences in intentions?

  • While they were partnering in the war against common enemies, the Russians and Iranians had different goals in Syria.
  • Russian Aim - For Mr. Putin, the Syrian intervention was a big gamble, through which he sought to bolster Russian stakes in the middle-east.
  • While the Obama regime was indecisive on which side to take in the conflict, Mr. Putin put his weight solidly behind the Assad regime.
  • As the regime is currently safe, Russia wants to exit soon and doesn’t want to get caught up like the US in Afghanistan.
  • Therefore, Moscow is continuously pressing the Assad regime to be ready for a lasting political solution to the crisis by incorporating significant changes.
  • Iranian Aim - Contrarily, Iran does not want any radical change in Syrian regime as such a move will weaken its standing in Syrian polity.
  • Syria’s political position is critical for Iran to exercise a strong regional influence stretching across – Bagdad, Damascus and Lebanon.
  • Notably, Lebanon lies on the Mediterranean coast and both Syria and Lebanon share borders with Israel and have active Shia Militia networks.
  • Hezbollah has already built a strong base along the Lebanon-Israel border, and Iran plans to strengthen such build-ups to strategically pressurise Israel.

                      

What are the emerging cracks?

  • While the war calculus forced Russians and Iranians to downplay their differences, the winding up of conflict has led to cracks in the alliance.
  • Russia is now feeling less reliant on Iran, and Tehran is growing wary of Moscow’s game plans, which is clearly laid down priorities.
  • Notably, Russia has even resisted provocations from Turkey, US and Israel in order to stay focussed to its mission in Syria by avoiding risky escalations.
  • Russia completely controls Syria’s airspace and has worked out de-confliction mechanisms with the U.S. and Israel to avoid direct attacks on each-other.
  • Significantly, while the U.S. has mostly carried out strikes against the IS, Israel has used Syrian air space only to attack Iran and Hezbollah (Russian allies).
  • Mr. Putin’s lukewarm interest in defending his allies and his lack of concern for increasing role of Turkey in Syria has put Iran in a fix.
  • Russia’s call for all foreign troops to exit Syria immediately after the war was also dismissed by Iran, which has now stated that it would retain troops.

What are Iran’s concerns?

  • Iran doesn’t have many allies and Trump had also scrapped the Iranian Nuclear Deal, which has made Iran’s diplomacy tougher.
  • Return of possible economic sanctions is another issues that it presently making Iranian polity nervous.
  • At this juncture, it won’t be possible for Iran to antagonise Russia, as containing Saudi, Israel and the US in the region is no easy task. 
  • This unique situation has put Mr. Putin in a commanding position in the region, and he seems to have got enough room for muscle flexing.
  • While Russia is trying to balance Turkish, Israeli and Iranian interests in the region, the geo-political complexity might make the game tough.
  • Notably, Turkey is part of NATO and Israel is the strongest ally of US in the region, with naturally pits them against Russia (cold war hangover).

 

Source: The Hindu

 

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