US president Trump has decided to pull out of the Iranian Nuclear Deal.
This might unleash a new crisis in the already disturbed middle-east.
What is the Iranian deal?
“Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA” (Iranian Deal) was piloted by the then Obama administration and an agreement was reached in 2015.
The agreement was between “P5+1 (Permanent Five in the UN and Germany) and Iran” and was intended to curb Iran’s nuclear program.
Significance - In 2015, Iran was close to building a nuclear bomb and JCPOA will effective stall any progress in that regard for at least 15 years.
The agreement placed Iran’s nuclear facilities under international radar and curbed any possibilities of it manufacturing weapon’s grade uranium.
It had also helped in lifting the international sanctions against Iran, which had impacted the country’s economy very severely.
JCPOA was a significant achievement for Iranian President Rouhani, as he had successfully manoeuvred it through despite strong opposition from hardliners.
Pullout - US has now pulled out of the deal by violating its own commitment despite the fact that Iran has stringently adhered to the agreed commitments.
Trump has stated that Iranian deal needs renegotiations as there aren’t enough checks against Iran’s nuclear program.
U.S. has also kicked off new sanctions against Iran, and companies and countries that deal with Iran (more comprehensive than earlier sanctions).
How has the response to US played out within Iran?
Iranian Response - Iran has only been voicing rhetoric opposition thus far and hasn’t resorted to any decisive action (like scarping JCPOA completely).
Iran has presently secured the support of other JCPOA stakeholders for the continuation of the deal.
All other stakeholders to JCPOA have voiced that they seen the deal as a base for negotiating further nuclear concession out of Iran.
Efforts for ensure that Iranian trade interests are protected against extensive US sanctions are also being worked out by the stakeholders.
U.S. demands - Trump administration has unveiled a dozen conditions for Iran to fulfil in order to reconsider removal of sanctions.
This includes a permanent clause for ending uranium enrichment (under the current JCPOA, there is only a 10 year ban on enrichment).
Additionally, the US wants Iran to end its missile program, and support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, along with a complete withdrawal from Syria.
What are the geo-political currents underlying the deal?
Arab spring and the rise of ISIS led to severe uncertainty in the middle-east, and U.S. was clearly short of diplomatic options region.
Obama concluded that the JCPOA with its stringent verification provisions would slow down Iran’s nuclear programme, and ease tensions in the region.
Additionally, it would strengthen the hand of a moderate leader in Rouhani, thereby enhancing diplomatic options for US in the region.
But contrarily, Trump administration (backed by rightist hardliners) seems to be against the rise of Iran as power centre in the region.
Notably, the lifting of sanction would’ve seen Iran emerge as a powerful economy in the region, which is not to the liking of Israel and Saudi.
Significantly, Israel and Saudi have been engaging Iranian proxies across various battlefields in the region (Yemen, Lebanon, Syria etc…)
In more specific terms, Trump seeks to keep Iran’s economy under check and explore possible options to undo the theocratic setup in the country since 1979.
How does the future look?
Domestically, Mr. Rouhani is likely to face pressure from hard-line elements if the deal approaches a collapse.
Rouhani has asked other JCPOA members to pitch in to make up for business losses that the US pullout is likely to cause to Iran (especially oil exports).
However, the signs are not promising as large European companies cannot afford U.S. sanctions due to their dependence on US markets.
While Iran is closing watching developments, there is a good likeliness that JCPOA might be rendered useless.
If that happens, then Iran might accelerate its nuclear program, which might unleash a new crisis in the region.
