Syrian Civil War - Factors at Play

What is the issue?

• Ten years since the outbreak of the crisis in Syria, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad seems to have won the civil war.
• Here is an overview of the ongoing transformations and the future course of the conflicts and relationships.

How has the territorial control transformed?

• In 2015, before the Russian intervention, Mr. Assad’s area of influence had shrunken to the largely Alawite-populated region stretching from Damascus to the Mediterranean coast.
• But, now, his troops control most of Syria, except Idlib and the Kurdish territories.
• The Kurds enjoy autonomy in the border region with Turkey, but have bought a delicate peace with Damascus.
• In effect,the only parts of the country that lie outside the sovereignty of the Syrian government are:
  1. Idlib, controlled by jihadists and rebels
  2. some towns on the border that are held by pro-Turkey militias

What effect has this created?

• Mr. Assad’s victory seems to have locked Syria in a prolonged geopolitical contest.
• The Syrian army turned around the war with help from Russia, Iran and several Iran-backed Shia militias, including the Lebanese Hezbollah.
• They are all still in Syria, which shares a border with Israel.
• This means the civil war has intensified the Iran-Israel conflict.

Has Israel's approach to the crisis changed?

• When the Syrian crisis unfolded in 2011-12, Israel took a ‘wait and watch’ approach.

• This was primarily because it preferred a stable regime in Damascus to the post-revolutionary chaos.
• So, despite the absence of a formal peace treaty, the Israeli-Syrian border has been largely uneventful since the 1970s.
• But when Iran deployed militias and military assets in Syria in defence of Mr. Assad, Israel changed it approach.
• Also, across Israel’s northern border, the Hezbollah has already established a formidable presence.
• Both Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon and the 2006 war on Lebanon were resisted by Hezbollah.
• For its part, Israel would not like to have more Iran-backed Shia militias across the GolanHeights.
• So, it captured Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War.
• This has been the de facto border between the two countries ever since.
• With current transformations in the power play, Israel changed its tactics.

What is Israel's changing tactics?

• It first started helping anti-Assad rebels in the Golan region by reportedly providing cash and medical aid.
• The plan was to create a buffer between the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria.
• This was done so that the pro-Iran militias could be stopped from coming face-to-face with Israeli troops.
• Later, after the tides turned in the civil war and Iran deepened its presence in Syria, Israel started bombing Iranian positions inside Syria.
• Since September 2015, the Syrian air space has practically been controlled by the Russians.
• But Russia looked away when Israel stepped up its bombings.
• Israel too has been careful not to hit Russian positions in the overcrowded Syrian battlefield.

• Israel had three key goals:

1. disrupt Iranian supplies for Hezbollah and other Shia militias
2. stop the militias advancing towards the de facto border
3. weaken Iran’s presence in Syria, by continuously targeting them

• In this line, in the last 3 years (back from 2020), Israel has carried out dozens of aerial attacks in Syria.
• In retaliation, Syria has often fired anti-aircraft missiles.

What is Iran's role?

• For the Syrian government, support from Iran was a lifeline.
• While Russia provided air power in the civil war, Iran supplied ground troops.
• So, Mr. Assad did nothing to prevent the sprawling Iranian influence in his country despite Israeli attacks.
• On the other hand, Iran’s response to Israeli attacks has been only to deepen its own footprints.
• As a result, Syria has emerged as a new theatre in the Israel-Iran geopolitical contest in West Asia, which could outlive the Syrian civil war.
• Already, the conflict has spilled from Syria into the Mediterranean and Red Sea waters where both sides target each other’s ships.
• In all, the Israel-Iran contest is set to intensify further with -
  • Israel determined to contain Iran’s growing influence in the region
  • the U.S. and other Western powers reaching out to Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal which could leave it more powerful economically

Source: The Hindu

Related article: Israel-Syria Relations