The U.S.-Taliban talks were suspended recently with U.S. President Trump’s decision.
However, the Afghan peace process has a long way to go and here is a look at the challenges and priorities in this regard.
What is the security threat Afghanistan faces?
With suspension of talks, the insurgent group threatened to step up attacks in Afghanistan.
After the suspension, it used two suicide bombers who killed at least 48 people.
They targeted a rally being addressed by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani north of Kabul, and also the capital.
These attacks are yet another warning of the security challenges Afghanistan faces.
This, especially, becomes a concern when the country is gearing up to the presidential poll (September 28, 2019).
Both the 2014 presidential election and 2018 parliamentary poll were violently disturbed by the Taliban.
This time, the group has asked civilians to stay away from political gatherings, making all those who participate in the political process potential targets.
What is the larger concern?
There are rising attacks against Afghan civilians by the Taliban.
This makes Taliban’s claim that it is ‘fighting on behalf of the civilians against the foreign invaders’ questionable.
The Taliban did not suspend its terror campaign even while holding talks with the U.S. in Qatar.
Now that the talks have collapsed, a revengeful Taliban could be more dangerous to the Afghans.
What is the Afghan government’s stance?
The Afghan government seems determined to go ahead with the election.
It has deployed some 70,000 troops to protect over 5,000 polling stations.
But, the threat from the Taliban is so grave that the President is largely addressing campaign rallies through Skype.
Even if the elections are over without further attacks, the Taliban problem will remain and the Afghan government will have to deal with it.
How does the future look?
The fundamental problem with the U.S.-Taliban peace process was that it excluded the Kabul government at the insistence of the insurgents.
This was a major compromise by the U.S.
On the other side, the Taliban was not even ready to cease hostilities.
A peace agreement dictated by the Taliban will not sustain and the Taliban cannot be allowed to have a free terror run either.
A permanently unstable Afghanistan and an insurgent group growing further in strength is unhealthy for any nation, including Afghanistan’s neighbours.
What lies ahead?
The U.S.-Taliban peace talks may have collapsed but it need not put an end to finding a settlement for the Afghan crisis.
Afghanistan needs a comprehensive peace push in which all stakeholders, including the government, the U.S., the Taliban and regional players should have a say.
The U.S., for its part, should -
continue to back the Kabul government
put pressure on Pakistan to crack down on the Afghan Taliban
double its counter-insurgency operations in Afghanistan
invite regional players such as Pakistan, Iran, Russia, India and China to take part in the diplomatic efforts
In other words, the Taliban should be forced to return to talks.
