Trump administration’s Afghan policy spelt out a clear disregard for Pakistan and also stressed the need to exterminate Taliban.
But over the recently, several envisioned provisions in that policy document seem to have been compromised completely.
What is the status of Trump’s Afghan policy?
Vision - Trump’s Afghan policy document stated that the U.S. mission in Afghanistan was primarily focused to eliminate terrorism and establish peace.
Further, it added that U.S. had little interest to stay put for long to ensure the rebuilding of Afghanistan or controlling it for geo-political leverage.
The policy also had viewed Pakistan negatively for its tacit support to terrorist groups and contrasted it with India’s constructive role in Afghanistan.
Reality - With just about 6 months having passed since the policy document was released, much seems to have diverged from the stated vision.
While Trump seemed determined to finish off the Taliban back then, he currently is opening up to the idea of negotiating a settlement with them.
Also, in his urge to vacate forces from Afghanistan as soon as possible, he might even seal a deal with the Taliban soon, which is a risky proportion.
Notably, if such a deal were to aid Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan, it would favour Pakistan and negatively affect India’s option in the region.
What is the present status of Taliban?
Status - Taliban ranks have swelled across the territory of Afghanistan since the “North Atlantic Treaty Organisation” (NATO) pulled out in 2014.
U.S. currently maintains a small force on its own in Afghanistan (15,000 personnel), which is primarily to handhold Afghan troops to build capabilities.
The increasing clout of Taliban and its territorial expansion is proving to be a clear setback to both the Afghanistan government and the U.S.
Indicator - Taliban relies on illegal drug trade to sustain its finances, and the estimate of opium output from Afghanistan is indicative of Taliban’s clout.
In this context, “Afghanistan Opium Survey” indicates that there has been an 87% increase in opium output in 2017 from the 2016 levels.
Significantly, area under “Opium Poppy Cultivation” has also increased over 63% between 2016 and 2017 and currently stands at 3.3 lakh hectares.
Diplomacy - Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had proposed peace with Taliban and even proposed the release of Taliban affiliated prisoners.
Further, he vouched to recognise Taliban as a legitimate political group with whom his government was ready to hold talks with.
These political positions are a clear mellow down from their previously held designation as terrorists, who need to be eliminated.
These advances are indicative of the shaky ground on which the Afghani political landscape is balancing itself on.
What are the implications for India?
The outcomes of any deal with the Taliban will keenly watched in the neighbourhood as that would change Afghanistan’s political dynamics.
If the demand for complete withdrawal of the foreign troops is granted, it would easily enable the re-establishment of Taliban administration.
The resurgence of Taliban would work to Pakistan’s favour and would considerably limit India’s strategic options in the region.
This would aid the reversal of the gains that India has made over the years in Afghanistan (at great costs), to secure its security situation.
More significantly, presently the U.S. already creating major hurdles in India’s outreach to Afghanistan through travel networks in Iran.
