The Future of Iranian Nuclear Deal

What is the issue?

What is JCPOA?

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed between Iran and P5 + 1 (5 permanent members of UNSC-China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States-plus Germany).
It provided concessions to Iran for giving up its nuclear enrichment program.
Trump has claimed that the deal is the most lopsided agreement ever signed.
The deadline for the US to certify Iran’s compliance with the deal is nearing & a refusal to do so seems very possible.

What will be impact of US pullout?

Such an action would undo the deal & could subsequently pave the way for reimposition of sanctions on Iran by the US.
Other countries involved in the deal have backed Iran thus far and might even enhance trade relations with it in future.
China, Iran’s main trading partner, and Russia, Iran’s military ally in Syria, would defy U.S. sanctions with even greater enthusiasm.
Thus, Iran might be able to overlook the US pullout.
But the friction could have other regional consequences.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards could unleash Shia militia against U.S. troops in Iraq, and expand support to Afghan insurgents.
Saudi-Iran tensions would spike, and the risks of a U.S.-Russia confrontation in West Asia would also jump dramatically.
It would be devastating for Washington’s credibility in future diplomacy.
For India, the Chabahar project, which is scheduled for completion next year, might face fresh obstacles.

What would be the consequent course for Iran?

Even if the deal is undone, Tehran is unlikely to expel nuclear inspectors entirely, or withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran would, however, consider re-starting the nuclear enrichment build-up like before 2013 as a bragining chip.
It would try to balance the advantages of this course against the risk of provoking European powers into siding with the US.
Increasing tensions between with US & Israel will also weigh on Iran’s calculations.

Source: The Hindu