The North Korea Connundrum

Why in news?

The North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test recently.

What is the history of Nuclear crises in Korea?

The current one is the third nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula.
First Crisis - Post-Cold War, U.S. and USSR withdrew naval and tactical nuclear weapons globally, including the ones in Korea.
But the U.S-South Korea military exercises were restarted.
Subsequently in 1993 with North Korea threatening to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
The crisis was averted by direct talks with the U.S. leading to an Agreed Framework in 1994.
Under which North Korea suspended its decision to withdraw from the NPT, agreed to freeze its nuclear activities.
The Clinton administration pledged to provide nuclear power reactors also provided more than $800 million of food aid.
Second Crisis - The Bush administration in 2002 declared North Korea part of the ‘axis of evil’ & annulled the 1994 Framework.
North Korea reacted by formally quitting the NPT in 2003.
China and Russia initiated the Six-Party Talks in 2003 which the U.S. later joined under pressure.
However, when the U.S. imposed new sanctions a few months later and North Korea responded with its first nuclear test in 2006.

What are the stats of the North Korea’s weapons program?

The Bomb – The current bomb is estimated to be six times bigger than the Hiroshima bomb.
Measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale, the recent test indicates an explosive yield of approximately 120 kilotons.
The North Koreans described it as a successful hydrogen bomb.
Missile Program - 4 nuclear tests & more than 80 missile tests have already been conducted under the current leadership.
U.S. intillegence have estimated that North Korea has succeeded in producing a mini-warhead that could be mated with its missiles.

ICBM - In July 2017, Hwasong-14 was tested, which is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
It reached a height of 2,800km and travelled a distance of 933km bringing mainland America within range.

What is the position of the key countries?

U.N. Security Council has met regularly to condemn North Korean missile tests and tighten sanctions.
USA - The U.S. policy under Mr. Trump has been ‘maximum pressure on North Korea’ through China.
Threats & counter threats have been exchanged frequently in recent times.
Recently US blamed China for increasing trade with North Korea, therby diluting the sanctions in place.
While US has assured a strong military retaliation if things worsen, it has also pragmatically stressed that it doesn’t seek regime change or the accelerated reunification of the Koreas.
China and Russia - They too have been highly critical of North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests.
They voice that if the U.S. and South Korea were to suspend their joint military exercises, North Korea would open up for a dialogue.

Why North Korea is strengthening its aresenal?

Kim Jong-un, looks convinced that he needs a nuclear deterrent for regime survival.
He clearly desires regime recognition & easing of sanctions.
He might also be to use this to dilute U.S – South Korea ties in an effort to unify the peninsula.
China too has half hearted in its efforts towards a denuclearised Korean peninsula as it fears that it would eventually lead to a regime collapse in the North & the creation of re-unificated Korea that is allied to USA.

How can this be resolved?

North Korea might agree to a temporary halt in testing as a means to start a dialogue but will not accept any restriction on capabilities in return for mere verbal assurances.
All the key powers involved should take up confidence building measures to chalk out a clear agenda.

Mutual recognition will have to precede reunification and for this, the two Koreas need to begin a dialogue.
For now, the objectives of ‘denuclearisation’ has to be set aside and North Korea’s nuclear capability will have to be recognized.

Source: The Hindu